‘World’s most accurate economist’ predicts if Trump or Harris will win 2024 election and the impact on the US market

A man known as the ‘world’s most accurate economist’ is taking his talents to the US election, predicting if Kamala Harris or Donald Trump will win and how it will effect the markets. 

Christophe Barraud of Market Securities has been rated by Bloomberg as the economist who best predicts what happens to the US economy each year, for 11 of the last 12.

Now, he’s taking a look at the 2024 election, with a focus on what will happen to the markets should Harris or Trump be elected, as polls show Trump with an edge over Harris on the economy.

Barraud is bullish on a growth economy regardless of who wins, because markets are currently hesitant due to the election, as well as weather disasters and labor strikes.

However, Barraud says the most likely outcome in 2024 is a red wave: Donald Trump taking back the White House and Republicans taking back the Senate, with a toss-up for the House of Representatives.

He uses a model that combines economic, financial and satellite data, as well as backtests and outside models, Barraud told Business Insider. 

Barraud also factors in what the betting markets have said about the elections, valuing the ones that get the most action. Betting markets have been bullish on Trump for most of the year. 

What would happen with the economy should Trump win and the Republicans take power over Congress?

Barraud has predicted a GDP boost anywhere from 2.1-2.3% in 2025 after Trump implements tax cuts. 

He does worry, however, about the ever-increasing US deficit and where it goes if Trump enacts tax cuts. 

The economist’s other forecasts include Trump winning, but a divided Congress, which would limit the president’s power and force him to focus most of his time on foreign policy.

Tariffs – a huge part of the Trump economic plan – would be enacted sooner than many think, according to Barraud, hurting growth globally and potentially hurting the economy long term. 

His third most likely scenario, a Harris victory and a divided Congress, would leave the economy in a status quo, with little expected to change. 

A series of new polls with just two weeks to go before Election Day show Donald Trump holding an edge on the economy, an issue that historically drives presidential races.

At a time when voters are still focused on inflation even as it has cooled to 2.4 percent, Americans are concluding that Trump will leave them wealthier and narrowly saying they trust him more on the economy.

Trump holds a narrow 48 to 46 percent in a new CNBC All-America Economic Survey.

But among those who make inflation and the economy a priority, Trump’s lead rises to 42 to 24.

Trump also holds a narrow 48 to 47 in the battleground states that that will determine the outcome of the election.

Both candidates are criss-crossing the country in those states to get out their economic messages.

Trump held a 35-point lead among those most concerned about economy, an issue he stresses constantly, and 19-point lead among those most concerned about crime and safety – and issue he often weaves with immigration by speaking about gruesome murders committed by migrants.

In the seven battleground states, Trump leads 48% to 47%, within the 4% margin of error for that portion of the poll.

The survey also showed Trump has a 35-point advantage among voters most concerned about immigration and a 19-point edge on the issue of crime and safety.

Another poll in the Financial Times conducted by the University of Michigan Ross School of Business had Trump holding a narrow edge on the economy.

He led Harris 44 percent to 43 percent, essentially a tie. Asked who would make them better off financially, respondents picked Trump 45 to 37 percent.