Heavy rainfall from Cyclone Alfred – the first to hit southeast Queensland and northern NSW in half a century – will reach as far as Sydney and last for days.
With a warning zone stretching 650km, the ‘slow moving’ but powerful category two system is edging closer towards Brisbane and is expected to cross the coast in the early hours of Saturday.
But what happens after Alfred makes landfall is an issue concerning some scientists.
‘From modelling, it is expected to move inland over the NSW interior and then possibly move across and pop off the coast around the Sydney area,’ Monash University research fellow Michael Barnes told Daily Mail Australia.
‘It is the rainfall intensity that is key.’
Barnes, who is a member of the ARC Centre of Excellence for 21st Century Weather, suggested Sydney and broader NSW will possibly see heavy rainfall of 100 to 200mm over a 24 to 48 hour period.
‘But the wind intensity will not be cyclone-strength,’ he said.
‘People should not be too panicked about that.’
Two girls are seen looking at foam left by giant waves at Froggies Beach on the Gold Coast
Pictured are residents at Point Danger in Coolangatta on the Gold Coast on Thursday
The Bureau has warned that Tropical Cyclone Alfred will ‘substantially influence’ rainfall over March (pictured, totals that have a 75 per cent chance of occurring for 10 March-16 March)
The Bureau of Meteorology has warned Tropical Cyclone Alfred will ‘substantially influence’ rainfall over March in south-eastern Queensland, eastern parts of New South Wales and even as far as Victoria.
Barnes references the case of Cyclone Jasper, a category two system in December 2023 that battered Queensland’s north coast with heavy rains and damaging winds.
‘The remnants sat on Queensland for several days and just rained,’ Barnes noted.
‘Once a tropical cyclone makes landfall, it typically loses intensity but it still can remain relatively active, even if weak, for several days.’
Cyclone Alfred is now less than 150km out from Brisbane and the region is already being hammered by rain and gale force winds.
NSW SES Deputy Commissioner Deb Platts has said it is vital people stay up to date on the latest developments as Cyclone Alfred edges towards the coast.
