The moment of truth for Michel Barnier and his government. The Social Security financing bill (PLFSS) returns to the National Assembly on Monday, December 2. The text submitted to the deputies comes from a joint committee (CMP), during which seven deputies and seven senators reached an agreement. However, it still contains measures which irritate the opposition, such as the reduction of employer contributions or the reimbursement of medicines, which compromises its adoption.
The tenant of Matignon and Marine Le Pen were still discussing possible adjustments on Sunday, confirmed the spokesperson for the RN deputies, Thomas Ménage, on France 3. But after having declared to La Tribune Sunday that censorship was not “not inevitable” if Michel Barnier accepted “to negotiate”and to make new concessions, Marine Le Pen estimated at the end of the day that the government had “ended the discussion”. “It is extremely clear and we have taken note of this”said the RN deputy again, opening the way to censorship.
Because if the text can be modified until the last moment, the Minister of the Budget, Laurent Saint-Martin, called for respecting the latest version resulting from the CMP. “To go back on it would be to undermine Parliament, democracy and deliberation, the compromise of which we respect”he told the Parisian. Enough to make the RN jump. “Out of stubbornness and sectarianism, the government minority therefore puts an end to the cycle of negotiations, at the risk of provoking its censorship”reacted on X the president of the RN, Jordan Bardella. “The government remains open to dialogue, as it has been from the beginning”responded the Prime Minister’s entourage on Sunday evening.
Relations are just as tense between Michel Barnier and the left-wing opposition in Parliament. Proof of this is: the socialist, environmentalist and communist senators left the hemicycle on Sunday during the debates on the 2025 budget. They castigated a “strength” of the government and the senatorial right, who requested, at the last minute, a new examination of several dozen measures already voted on.
The PS group in the Senate leaves the session to denounce a series of second deliberations requested by the government and the rapporteur on the #PLF2025. “You forcefully pass the budget through the Senate” denounces @Th_Cozicwhich accuses the government of being a “sore loser”. pic.twitter.com/9JzVSCcAGJ
— Public Senate (@publicsenat) December 1, 2024
“The government allows its positions to be dictated by the RN”had denounced earlier Sunday on LCI the boss of the Ecologists, Marine Tondelier, while the executive made several gestures to satisfy the RN. Because Michel Barnier also plays his role on the budget. In the absence of a majority in the Assembly, the Prime Minister had warned in mid-November that he would initiate “probably” the responsibility of its government on the budget by using article 49.3 of the Constitution, which allows adoption of the text without a vote. “When I see what happened in the Assembly, it seems difficult to do otherwise at the end of the discussion. But you will observe that we made the choice to let the debate take place there”he explained.
The use of a first 49.3 by Michel Barnier on Monday will inevitably precipitate the tabling of a motion of censure from the left or the extreme right. The oppositions say they are ready to vote on it on Wednesday (48 hours at the earliest after submission). “We are waiting to see the draft Social Security budget on Monday to draw the consequences. If the text has not evolved and the government decides on 49.3, we will vote for censure”had launched the RN deputy Jean-Philippe Tanguy in Les Echos SATURDAY.
For their part, in a letter to Michel Barnier, the First Secretary of the PS, Olivier Faure, and the heads of the socialist parliamentary groups, Boris Vallaud and Patrick Kanner, wrote : “YOU do not leave us any other choice by engaging 49.3 than to vote, with responsibility, to censure your government.”
If the motion of censure were voted for by a majority of deputies (at least 289), it would be the first fall of a government since 1962, when George Pompidou was Prime Minister. The Minister of the Economy, Antoine Armand, however, warned of the consequences of a new political earthquake, in particular an increase in debt interest rates. “The absence of a budget and political instability would lead to a sudden and substantial increase in the costs of financing the French debt”he declared on Saturday during a press briefing. The minister called “everyone has their responsibilities” to prevent the political crisis from being coupled with a financial crisis.
