Why Chinese warships are off Sydney’s coast

As I wrote here early last week, the geopolitical earthquake in Europe will inevitably see aftershocks in Asia. Those aftershocks have arrived. Welcome, Australia, to an entirely new Pacific security environment. The situation has changed, so the thinking must change. Whether this will register in Canberra remains to be seen, however.

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Of course, it is possible that China may have miscalculated here. They are the masters of childish overreaction after all. Might this wildly irresponsible and unnecessary aggression prompt a much needed, more robust debate on defence in Australia (and New Zealand), including the need to spend more, significantly expand the lethality, capacity and size of the ADF, and build much more defence material here?

This Chinese operation fundamentally changes Australia’s security outlook. We are dealing with an aggressive, irresponsible PLA that so far, Australia has shown little capacity or willingness to deter. Now, with them live firing off Australia’s coast, might this be the shock our politicians need to fund the ready, lethal and large ADF we need to counter 21st century authoritarianism?

Mick Ryan is a retired major general who served in the ADF for more than 35 years. He is the Senior Fellow for Military Studies at the Lowy Institute. He is the author of the 2024 book, The War for Ukraine.