Why Bournemouth are Man City’s kryptonite and how manager Andoni Iraola’s style can beat Pep Guardiola AGAIN ahead of FA Cup quarter-final

‘Today, modern football is the way Bournemouth, Newcastle, Brighton and Liverpool play,’ reflected Pep Guardiola. ‘Modern football is not positional. You have to rise to the rhythm.’

That was quite the admission back in January from the Manchester City boss, who has built his many kingdoms on precisely that kind of positional obsession – control space, create overloads and dominate possession.

For so long, it has permeated every level of English football and been seen as the blueprint for success. But now, the sands are shifting and it was Bournemouth’s name that was at the front of Pep’s mind when he admitted his grip on the game might be starting to loosen.

And for good reason. Andoni Iraola’s style is Guardiola’s kryptonite and now Bournemouth have the chance to beat City for a second time this season to reach the FA Cup semi-final for the first time in their history.

Bournemouth’s game under Iraola is built around relentless pressing and rapid transitions – two elements that can exploit Guardiola’s style. ‘Before teams were more cautious,’ said Guardiola about how his opponents used to wilt against them. ‘Now teams are so brave.’

Few are as brave as Bournemouth.

The Cherries swarm their opponents high up the pitch. No Premier League side have won possession more often in the final third than Bournemouth. No one has done it more often than forward Antoine Semenyo, while team-mates Dango Ouattara and Marcus Tavernier are also in the top nine.

Iraola’s side, led by a disciple of former Leeds boss Marcelo Bielsa, are not ones for passing for passing sake. They like to go direct, helped by the superb long passing range of centre-backs Dean Huijsen and Illia Zabarnyi.

Only Nottingham Forest (31%) and Newcastle (31%) have a fewer percentage of their goal-kicks ending in their own penalty area than Bournemouth (32%). Chelsea and Spurs have more than 80 per cent.

Bournemouth then have the hunger to pounce on any loose balls. No team have made more ball recoveries this season than the Cherries.

When they do win it, they attack in a flash. No side have taken more shots in transition, where a team have an attempt on goal right after possession changes hands, than Bournemouth (196). No side have had more shots following a high turnover (57), when a team wins the ball within 40 metres (43.7 yards) of goal. Only Liverpool (56) and Chelsea (42) have taken more shots after counter-attacks than Bournemouth (37).

Bournemouth attack at speed. They attack up the pitch at 2.05 metres per second, behind only Nottingham Forest (2.08m/s) as the quickest in the division. Unlike Forest, however, Bournemouth are not a side that sit deep, soak up pressure and counter. They hunt you down all over the pitch.

As Guardiola admitted, football is changing. Teams who move it quick and direct, up and down instead of side to side and around the back, are having their time in the sun again.

Counter-attacks, what statisticians Opta call ‘fast breaks’, are on the rise. There have been 608 so far in the Premier League this season, already more than last term, and more than double the number across the whole of 2017-18. Fast breaks that lead to shots and goals are also soaring – and it is helping take teams to the top.

Liverpool (11.4%), Forest (10%) and Chelsea (9%) – three of the current Premier League top four – boast the highest percentage of their shots coming from fast breaks. Only Brighton have a lower rate from them than City.

Champions-elect Liverpool can keep the ball with the best of them but they are devastating and direct too.

City are struggling to cope with it all. Teams are much better at pressing teams that build-up from the back like City and forcing mistakes than ever before. Sides have made 481 errors leading to shots so far this season, they only made 321 in the whole of last term. Unsurprisingly, no side have forced more errors from their opponents than Bournemouth.

When they beat City at the Vitality Stadium earlier in the season, Semenyo pounced on Nathan Ake in the first minute, won the ball and sprung a three-on-one counter-attack. It was only a fine double save from Ederson that stopped them going behind.

It is a common theme with City’s woes this season. When this ageing side lose the ball, they struggle to win it back again.

City have made the fewest ball recoveries this season, which, for a team that have so much possession, it is perhaps not surprising that you need to win the ball back less than a side than never have it.

But a troubling pattern is emerging. City’s dominance of possession is dropping but the frequency with which they regain it is not going up to match it. That is plummeting, too.

In 2017-18, for example, City averaged 72 per cent possession but still made 61 ball recoveries a game. This season, they have 60 per cent of the ball but only regain it 43 times.

So much of that is down to the absence of Rodri.

Across the last four title-winning seasons, even in a team that have had the most of the ball, no player won it back more often than Rodri. He averaged 8.7 recoveries a game. City’s leading midfielders this season Ilkay Gundogan and Mateo Kovacic average just 4.7.

City without him, with a squad full of many past their physical peak, playing in a formation with a traditional centre-forward in Erling Haaland instead of a false nine who scurries back into the mucky midfield trenches, are getting overrun.

Bournemouth have struggled for results in recent weeks but they have all the tools to create history against City. They have the chance to prove they are the future of modern football after all.