“Recently, we’ve noticed at some events, he seems to be wearing hearing aids. And, you know, I think in general, the winter is a rough time for him.
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“But all things considered, everyone that I speak with close to him says he still remains mentally sharp and pretty determined to press onward.”
Late last year, Francis surprised many when he named 21 new cardinals in a power play that will ensure the now 140-member College of Cardinals – whose main job is to elect the next pope – is 80 per cent made up of those of his choosing. Just what it will mean for his successor is unclear.
And in many circles, it is seen as rude to speculate while the Pope is alive.
While various names have been thrown around as candidates, such as Canadian Cardinal Marc Ouellet, Dutch Cardinal Wim Eijk or Hungary’s Cardinal Peter Erdo on the conservative side – alongside compromise figures such as Maltese Cardinal Mario Grech or Italian Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, a peace envoy to Ukraine and Gaza – Francis has been said to favour the Philippines’ Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle or Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin.
Touted as the “Asian Francis”, Tagle would be hailed by more progressive Catholics, given the changing demographic of the church. However, in November, Parolin, the Vatican’s secretary of state, or highest-ranking diplomat, became the favourite with bookmakers.
Italian academic Massimo Faggioli, a professor of theology and religious studies at Villanova University, said while Francis had made sure that a large majority of cardinals were “his creatures”, the grouping was large and diverse.
“If you pick the cardinal of Singapore and the cardinal of Chicago on the issue of homosexuality, for instance, they are in completely different worlds, and it can be said also on women in the Church,” Faggioli says, adding that it was a “suicidal” mission to even try to predict who Francis’ successor would be.
“We have cardinals from many more countries than ever. It’s very clear that he wants to give more voice to certain areas of the world and rebalance from the Anglo-American prelates. But the problem is that even they don’t know each other well.”
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When pressed, he says it’s easier to look at demographics than individual candidates.
“I think it’s extremely unlikely that it will be another Jesuit,” he says. “It’s unlikely that it will be another from Latin America. I think it’s more likely, after a long pontificate of disruption, that the conclave will think that it’s time for someone with a more traditional institutional profile. There are many that fit that bill.”
Experts agree that the circumstances and timing around the next conclave will be critical to who emerges as the next pontiff. Faggioli says the wars in Gaza and Ukraine have cast a shadow and caused internal ructions.
Long-time Vatican correspondent Edward Pentin says there is a strong dynamic to return the papacy to a conservative from Europe, but it is impossible to know how it will play out.
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“I don’t like talking about the next pope certainly,” says Pentin, who launched the new website collegeofcardinalsreport.com last month, profiling the men most likely. “But there is a need to do so because when the conclave is called, the cardinals will have just a short window of time to become acquainted with one another.”
Pentin says another cardinal from the developing world, 64-year-old Fridolin Ambongo Besungu of the Democratic Republic of Congo, should be mentioned as a contender, but he thinks the chances of an African pope next time around “seem to be fading”.
Pentin says many conservative Catholics believe American Cardinal Raymond Burke would be a great candidate, though many believe for geopolitical reasons the pope cannot hold the same passport as the leader of a global superpower.
“It’s complex,” he says. “The majority of the cardinals are very much aligned with Francis, but the rest are not. And anyway, that doesn’t necessarily mean that I’ll vote for somebody like him.”
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