Coming into a new year usually brings clarity. But when it comes to the Oscar race — to quote novelist William Goldman — nobody knows anything. Academy Award nominations will be announced Jan. 17 and voting is currently underway. Judging by the Golden Globe Awards Sunday, a number of winners have brought their possible Oscar nominations into focus. But at the end of the day, how reliable are precursors anyway? After all, we all know the Oscars do their own thing. So, without being influenced by other voting parties, here’s a guess at where the race seems to stand.
• Best Picture
Unlike the awards show, we’re not going to make you wait until the end to get to the big one. The general feeling is that the best picture race has come down to a couple of strong contenders — both musicals, although they couldn’t be more different. In one corner is “Emilia Pérez,” the largely Spanish-language musical about a cartel kingpin who transitions to become a woman. The film has built a steady following since its premiere at Cannes, and it’s helmed by auteur Jacques Audiard. The other is director Jon M. Chu’s box office and social media sensation “Wicked,” a lavish adaptation of the Broadway musical based on the book that is based on the classic “Wizard of Oz” mythology.
Both films have passionate fan bases that will put the film at No. 1 on a preferential ballot. Both are wildly entertaining but also contain deep political messages. And both have actors sure to be recognized in the race.
But nothing is for sure, and it would be foolish to rule out other films — specifically “Conclave,” the papal drama that has slowly and steadily been gaining ground. Remember that director Edward Berger’s last film, “All Quiet on the Western Front,” seemed to emerge from nowhere to become a serious best picture threat and took home four Oscars. There is something to be said for a solid drama, well-made and old-fashioned in the best way.
The same could be said for Brady Corbet’s “The Brutalist,” which has picked up several critics’ awards. Its slower expansion means a general audience has yet to weigh in, but it could start picking up steam this month. On the flip side is “Sing Sing,” Greg Kwedar’s inspirational and well-liked drama that has been out since July. Both films are from the never-to-be-underestimated studio, A24.
Rounding out best picture is likely to be epic sequels (“Gladiator II,” “Dune: Part Two”) and true stories (“A Complete Unknown,” “Nickel Boys,” “September 5”) along with films from acclaimed directors (“Blitz,” “Hard Truths”) and a few indie wildcards (“The Substance,” “A Real Pain”) that have done well on the shortlists. Then there are three stellar foreign-language films (“I’m Still Here,” “Seed of the Sacred Fig” and “All We Imagine as Light”), each of which have their share of supporters.
Adrien Brody stars in “The Brutalist.” (A24)
A24
• Best Director
Based off the best picture frontrunners, one would assume Audiard, Chu, Berger and Corbet are in a good position to be recognized. But there are some beloved veterans who have never won, including Ridley Scott (“Gladiator II”), Denis Villeneuve (“Dune: Part Two”) and Mike Leigh (“Hard Truths”). The directors branch tends to be more open to foreign-language films, so don’t count out Walter Salles (“I’m Still Here”), Mohammad Rasoulof (“Sacred Fig”) or Payal Kapadia (“Light”). There are also up-and-coming filmmakers who made a serious impression with their films, from RaMell Ross (“Nickel Boys”) to Coralie Fargeat (“The Substance”).
• Best Actor and Actress
The best actor lineup is looking like a roster of returning players, from Oscar winner Adrien Brody (“The Brutalist”) to previous nominees Timothée Chalamet (“A Complete Unknown”), Ralph Fiennes (“Conclave”) and Colman Domingo (“Sing Sing”). These four seem to be the most agreed upon as locks for a nod. Other return nominees on the bubble are Paul Mescal (“Gladiator II”) and Jesse Eisenberg (“A Real Pain”). Of the newcomers to the race, things look brightest for actors cast against type — Daniel Craig as a gay writer in “Queer,” Sebastian Stan as both Donald Trump in “The Apprentice” and as an actor with a facial disfigurement in “A Different Man,” and Hugh Grant in the genre film “Heretic.”
While best actress has its share of previous winners and nominees in the race, there’s a consensus forming around several new names. Both Mikey Madison (“Anora”) and Karla Sofía Gascón (“Emilia Pérez”) are likely to be recognized. And Demi Moore (“The Substance”) should not be counted out, especially now that she took home a Golden Globe for the role. Two previous winners delivered bravura turns — Angelina Jolie in “Maria” and Nicole Kidman in “Babygirl.” And among previous nominees, Cynthia Erivo (“Wicked”), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (“Hard Truths”) and June Squibb (“Thelma”) are in prime positions. Others it would be wise not to bet against: Amy Adams (“Nightbitch”), Saoirse Ronan (“The Outrun”), Golden Globe winner Fernanda Torres (“I’m Still Here”) and Pamela Anderson (“The Last Showgirl”).
Sebastian Stan as Donald Trump in “The Apprentice,” left, and as an actor with neurofibromatosis in “A Different Man,” right.
The Apprentice: Briarcliff Entertainment; A Different Man: A24
• Best Supporting Actor and Actress
A consensus seems to have formed around three actors: frontrunner Kieran Culkin (“A Real Pain”), Guy Pearce (“The Brutalist”) and Denzel Washington (“Gladiator II”). But there are several actors
positioned for the remaining slots. “Anora” breakout Yura Borisov has been showing up regularly despite being a newcomer to most audiences. Also new is Clarence Maclin in a role close to home in “Sing Sing.” And Edward Norton, long overdue for a win, is earning raves for “A Complete Unknown.”
Among the great ensemble of “September 5,” Peter Sarsgaard and John Magaro have been standouts. Stanley Tucci (“Conclave”) and Brian Tyree Henry (“The Fire Inside”) could earn second nominations in this category. And if “Wicked” sweeps, don’t rule out Jonathan Bailey. Other buzzy contenders include Jeremy Strong for “The Apprentice” and Willem Dafoe in “Nosferatu.”
In supporting actress, music plays a vital role. The race is currently perceived to be between Ariana Grande in “Wicked” and Zoe Saldaña in “Emilia Pérez,” but other potential nominees include Saldaña’s co-star Selena Gomez, and Monica Barbaro and Elle Fanning as the women in Bob Dylan’s life in the musical biopic “A Complete Unknown.” Even Danielle Deadwyler has a pivotal musical scene in “The Piano Lesson.” Likely to earn her first Oscar nomination is the quietly powerful Isabella Rossellini in “Conclave.” Other potential nominees: Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor in “Nickel Boys,” Felicity Jones in “The Brutalist,” Margaret Qualley in “The Substance” and Saoirse Ronan in “Blitz.”
