When Joe Biden defeated Donald Trump in 2020 it took China almost a week to issue an official message to congratulate him, as the outgoing president challenged the election results. This time, as Mr Trump won a convincing victory to seal his return to the White House, the Chinese foreign ministry was far prompter in its response.
President Xi Jinping and president-elect Trump have already spoken over a phone call, according to reports. But the two leaders, who have a history of terse exchanges and strategic rivalry, are yet to announce their first interaction since Mr Trump’s return.
With the change in administration in the US, global leaders are closely watching how the incoming president navigates the China question, as how things play out between the two largest economies will have ripple effects not only for America but for the rest of the world.
“I think China would be slightly relieved if not celebrating Trump’s victory,” Derek Grossman, a senior defence analyst at the RAND think tank, told The Independent.
“The main difference between Harris and Trump is that Trump at least offers the opportunity for some sort of grand strategic bargain. Whereas Harris wouldn’t offer that opportunity at all and would have continued the Biden administration’s approach in the Indo Pacific, which is to strengthen alliances and partnerships to counter China right now,” he said.
More economically vulnerable now, China is bracing for an even bigger trade war as the Republican leader has threatened to slap blanket 60 per cent tariffs on all Chinese exports to the US if he lives up to his campaign promises.
During his first presidency, Mr Trump engaged China in a trade war, imposing tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of Chinese imports, sparking a tit-for-tat chain of reaction. The tariffs to punish China for alleged unfair practices and pressure it to make economic reforms disrupted global markets and led to tensions that went beyond trade, affecting diplomatic relations.
The tariffs, which could decimate the trade between the two countries, would be a significant blow to China’s ailing economy which is suffering from high youth unemployment, a lengthy property slump, and government debt.
“Beijing is particularly concerned about a potential revival of the trade war under Trump, especially given China’s current internal economic challenges, which leave it with less capacity to respond than during Trump’s first term,” Tong Zhao, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told The Independent.
Despite fears of renewed tariffs, Beijing believes Mr Trump’s tough trade policies would be deeply unpopular with US allies and partners in Europe and the Asia-Pacific as well, “creating an opportunity for China to strengthen ties with these countries”, he said.
A 60 per cent tariff on Chinese imports could reduce China’s expected economic growth by 2.5 percentage points, or about half, according to a Union Bank of Switzerland (UBS) analysis published earlier this year.
“This concern may prompt Beijing to delay or scale back anticipated economic stimulus packages in the short term, conserving policy tools for when Trump assumes office,” Mr Zhao underscored.
Beijing-based commentator Einar Tangen, a senior fellow at Chinese think tank, Taihe Institute, emphasised the financial risks of Mr Trump’s “reshoring” agenda, which aims to revive American manufacturing by bringing industries back from overseas.
He noted that the high cost of domestic production, including “higher wages, development, and logistics costs”, posed a formidable challenge to sustaining such a policy.
