TUSCALOOSA, Ala. — What’s the identity of the 2024 Alabama team? It’s hard to say exactly, which is part of the problem that has led to two losses in the past three weeks. Saturday’s home game against Missouri, essentially a do-or-die for the team’s College Football Playoff hopes, is the next opportunity to find that answer.
The Crimson Tide have produced championship-level stretches throughout the season, but there’s inconsistency at every turn. They outscored South Florida 29-3 in the fourth quarter but only after a modest 14-13 lead entering the final quarter. They opened the Georgia game with a 28-0 scoring frenzy but were outscored 34-13 the rest of the way en route to a narrow win. The offense scored 35 points on 46 plays at Vanderbilt, but two costly turnovers (resulting in 13 Commodores points) prevented proper credit. The defense forced three first-half turnovers against Tennessee, then surrendered 24 second-half points.
“We are a decent team with a lot of potential,” offensive lineman Tyler Booker said Monday via Next Round Live.
Still, Alabama (5-2, 2-2 SEC) is very much in play for the ultimate goal: the Playoff and a shot at a national title. But that’s secondary to what’s most important: establishing an identity and winning Saturday’s game. It’s a Top 25 matchup, but its importance is bigger than rankings. Alabama needs to find its team captains, selected in the preseason for the first time, to galvanize the team and play at a high level. For Kalen DeBoer, it’s an opportunity to show his ability to pick up his team after a few losses and showcase a resilient culture under his watch.
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It’s also likely a Playoff eliminator for Missouri, which has only one loss but doesn’t have another marquee game on its schedule. Before the actual keys to the game, a scan of both teams’ health provides the necessary context for the game.
Wednesday, it was reported that Missouri starting quarterback Brady Cook is doubtful for the game, and 13 players were listed on Thursday’s official report, ranging from out to questionable. Only three Alabama players appear on its report: Keon Sabb (out), Cayden Jones (out) and Red Morgan (probable). But nagging injuries that aren’t listed, such as those to Jalen Milroe, Jaeden Roberts and others, have been a storyline this week.
Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe and the Crimson Tide will try to avoid their second straight loss Saturday when they host Missouri. (Saul Young / USA Today Network via Imagn Images)
The bye week is on the horizon, but Alabama needs to create some momentum before then because a trip to LSU is looming Nov. 2.
Here are three keys plus a prediction for Saturday’s game:
Offense needs more layers
It’s hard to start any conversation about Alabama’s offense without addressing what’s happening at quarterback. Is Milroe injured? Has he just regressed? Is it time for a different option?
The third question is an interesting one within the structure of Alabama’s offense. If Milroe is that banged up to the point where it’s severely hurting the offense, a change is worth considering. But there’s something to consider within that: He is Alabama’s rushing offense. To this point, Alabama hasn’t established a consistent running game, outside of an attack set up off Milroe runs (designed or otherwise) and then working in the running backs off those looks. The Tennessee game featured a bigger commitment to the run, starting with several runs to start the second half, but that didn’t continue through the game.
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The South Florida game is the only one this season when Jam Miller and Justice Haynes got double-digit carries. Opponent aside, each saw success as the offense recorded nearly 5.0 yards per carry. Whoever the quarterback is, Alabama needs a bigger dose of those running backs to take some pressure off the quarterback and an offensive line that has had some struggles in pass protection. Missouri has an average rushing defense, ranked 33rd nationally.
A more balanced offensive approach is one part of the equation; the other is a return to the layered, creative play calling seen in the early part of the season. Alabama’s offense has felt too predictable during the past few weeks. Where are the answers if the big play isn’t readily available, as was the case against Tennessee? Part of that is on Milroe to hit the makeable throws, which he didn’t last week, but the coaching staff needs to better use the personnel: The disparity of play calls and targets between Milroe, Ryan Williams and the rest of the skill players is noticeable.
Situational execution might make a difference
Of all of the talking points about the offense, this stat is the most jarring: Alabama’s defense has forced 11 turnovers in SEC play, and the offense has turned that into 13 total points. The lack of complementary football has hurt the team as much as anything. There’s reason to believe the defense will continue to provide extra possessions, especially if Cook doesn’t play, but the offense has to find a way to capitalize and create separation.
Missouri has a stingy defense. The Tigers are ninth nationally in total defense and ninth in third-down defense and have allowed the fourth-fewest trips to the red zone (14). Only half of those have resulted in touchdowns.
The biggest stat to watch is the first-down offense. During Alabama’s first bye week, we pinpointed this as a weakness. At that point, Alabama was averaging 6.2 yards per third down, but it was converting 52.5 percent of its third-down tries, which was 16th nationally. That hasn’t been sustainable as the big plays have become less frequent, and the early down offense hasn’t improved.
Today, Alabama has 53 third-down attempts, and 33 have been 7 or more yards. Now, Alabama’s converting just 42.2 percent of its tries, down nearly 10 percent, and ranks 50th, down 34 spots. Three keys within the three keys: avoid early down penalties, stay ahead of the chains and control time of possession.
Potential statement game for defense
The news of Cook’s status is compounded by the fact Missouri’s leading rusher Nate Noel is listed as out and third-leading receiver Mookie Cooper is listed as doubtful. This is a beat-up Missouri offense, and Alabama’s defense needs a performance that reflects that.
Fifth-year senior Drew Pyne is set to start in Cook’s place. The former Notre Dame and Arizona State starter completed just 10 of 21 passes in Cook’s absence against Auburn but is much more experienced than most college backup quarterbacks with 379 career attempts.
Still, Alabama has been vulnerable to big plays through the air every week, no matter who the quarterback has been. The Crimson Tide have injury concerns in their secondary: Sabb is out, and several players, such as Morgan, Zabien Brown and DeVonta Smith, are coming off injuries and might not be at full strength. The spotlight will be on the safeties: Bray Hubbard, making his first career start in Sabb’s place, and Malachi Moore, who will need to shoulder an even larger role than he already does to ensure the secondary is properly aligned.
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One advantage working in Alabama’s favor is that Pyne doesn’t offer the mobile threat that has hurt this defense. Without that element or the starting running back, the defensive players should be able to pin their ears back and go after Pyne. The defense showed some improvement last week despite the second-half numbers and has found a rhythm in pass rush and takeaways. Now, it needs a complete game.
Keep in mind: Despite the two losses, there’s a lot of football to be played. No team in the SEC is undefeated in conference play. And there’s a scenario out there where up to nine teams could finish 6-2 in league play, obviously including Alabama if it wins out. The SEC Championship Game is a way out, but there’s a chance with a November turnaround.
Prediction
Negativity is swirling, and pressure is mounting, but winning cures all. Alabama’s at home, Missouri’s at a significant injury disadvantage, and it feels like Alabama needs this game more. Does that mean it will be a complete, clean operation? No, this team hasn’t shown that yet. But I do believe Alabama will do enough to win the game and go into the bye week needing to address a lot before its huge showdown with LSU.
Alabama 24, Missouri 13
(Top photo of Kalen DeBoer: Saul Young / USA Today Network via Imagn Images)
