West Ham fear Lucas Paqueta is fighting a losing battle ahead of his alleged spot-fixing hearing – with the Brazilian star facing a lifetime ban for breaching betting rules

West Ham fear Lucas Paqueta is set up to lose his seismic fight with the Football Association which could see the Brazilian star banned for life if he is found to have broken betting rules.

Senior Hammers sources have told Mail Sport they are not confident of a victory as they believe the odds are stacked against the Premier League club and their player.

That is owing to the standard of proof being based on a ‘balance of probabilities’ – as in civil law cases – as opposed to the more rigorous ‘beyond a reasonable doubt’ threshold applied in criminal proceedings.

 In other words, the FA only need to prove it is more likely than not that Paqueta engaged in spot-fixing by deliberately being booked to influence betting markets, and West Ham insiders have described it as ‘savage’ and ‘very wrong’ that a career could be destroyed on a potential ‘51 per cent’ guilty verdict.

Under FA rules, the civil standard of ‘balance of probabilities’ is used by their Regulatory Commissions in cases.

West Ham have continued to support Paqueta in the hope of proving his innocence and the player himself remains determined to clear his name, having denied the accusations ever since Mail Sport broke the story of the FA’s investigation back in August 2023.

 Senior West Ham sources have admitted to Mail Sport they are not confident of winning Paqueta’s case 

Senior West Ham sources have admitted to Mail Sport they are not confident of winning Paqueta’s case

Nearly two years later, and with this having developed into one of the most high-profile cases in the Premier League era, his hearing is finally believed to be scheduled to start this month. It could last three weeks, though we have had it confirmed that the 27-year-old will be allowed to continue playing for West Ham while that is ongoing. The Hammers host Newcastle on Monday.

It was in May 2024 when the FA officially charged Paqueta with misconduct, alleging he purposefully received four separate yellow cards to enable winning wagers. They related to cautions shown in Premier League games against Leicester in November 2022, Aston Villa in March 2023, Leeds in May 2023, and Bournemouth in August 2023.

In their statement at the time, the FA said: ‘It’s alleged that he directly sought to influence the progress, conduct, or any other aspect of, or occurrence in these matches by intentionally seeking to receive a card from the referee for the improper purpose of affecting the betting market in order for one or more persons to profit from betting.’

The Brazil international was also further charged with failing to comply with the FA’s investigation as Paqueta published his own statement in response, declaring: ‘I deny the charges in their entirety and will fight with every breath to clear my name.’

It is said the FA are seeking a lifetime ban for Paqueta, though the association declined to comment on the case when contacted on Friday. West Ham and Paqueta’s agency Roc Nation Sports were also contacted.

Paqueta has been a key player for West Ham since signing from Lyon for a club-record £51million in 2022, and it was his assist for Jarrod Bowen which saw them beat Fiorentina in the Conference League final in Prague in 2023, marking their first major trophy in 43 years.