Veterans of the Syrian Jihad Relocate to Afghanistan: A New Threat to Iran, China, and Central Asia

A new jihadist project is gaining momentum in Afghanistan, posing serious threats to regional stability. “Hayat Tahrir al-Sham” (HTS), a terrorist group originally based in Syria and banned in Russia, is now establishing operational cells and recruitment hubs in northern and western Afghan provinces. Intelligence suggests that HTS is laying the groundwork for an Afghan branch, with apparent tolerance from Taliban authorities, who may view the group as a counterweight to the growing influence of the Islamic State – Khorasan Province (ISIS-K).

Since December 2024, HTS emissaries have become increasingly active in Afghanistan. Having evolved from Jabhat al-Nusra — a former Al-Qaeda affiliate in Syria — HTS emerged as a dominant force by the end of 2024, toppling the Assad regime and positioning its leader, Abu Muhammad al-Julani, as interim president of Syria. This victory was made possible through the support of foreign fighters from Central Asia and China’s Uyghur minority, who fought alongside Arab jihadists.

Following their triumph in Syria, many HTS fighters—Uyghurs, Tajiks, Uzbeks, Chechens, Kyrgyz, and Tatars—relocated to Pakistan and Afghanistan. Their primary base of operations is now in the Andarab Valley, located in Baghlan province in northern Afghanistan. The Afghan cells are reportedly led by Mawlawi Abdul Fattah, a Tajik native of Baghlan who previously fought in Syria and Iraq under various jihadist banners, including ISIS, Al-Qaeda, and HTS.

In late December 2024, Afghan sources reported the initial arrival of HTS fighters and their families in Baghlan’s Banu, Deh Salah, and Pul-e-Hisar districts. Initially numbering between 500 and 700, the group’s size has since grown rapidly. Between January and March 2025, HTS’s Afghan presence expanded significantly due to the arrival of new foreign fighters and a robust recruitment campaign targeting local Afghans.

A key partner in this expansion has been the Afghan branch of Hizb ut-Tahrir, another banned extremist group, which operates from Bazarak in Panjshir province. Its leader, Mawlawi Yahya, is reportedly coordinating closely with Abdul Fattah and other HTS commanders to build the group’s Afghan infrastructure.

Financial constraints do not appear to be a concern. Recruitment efforts target young Afghan men aged 18 to 28, primarily through mosques in Baghlan. Clerics act as intermediaries, encouraging enlistment during sermons and facilitating “contracts” between recruits and HTS cells. New fighters are reportedly paid a signing bonus of $1,000 — $900 of which they retain, while $100 goes to the facilitating cleric.

Recruitment centers have also been established in the western province of Herat, near the Iranian border, signaling broader regional ambitions. Afghan sources estimate that HTS’s Afghan branch may now number as many as 10,000 fighters, with further growth expected. Notably, some Taliban foot soldiers have defected to HTS, likely lured by financial incentives amid delays in Taliban salary payments.

The Taliban regime has taken no visible action to curb HTS’s operations. Analysts cite three primary reasons: first, HTS’s sponsors have allegedly bribed Taliban officials at both central and local levels; second, HTS maintains close ties with Al-Qaeda leaders, who are also present in northern Afghanistan — including Hamza bin Laden, son of Osama bin Laden, who resides in Bazarak, Panjshir; third, the Taliban appear to see HTS as a useful rival to ISIS-K, whose power is expanding unchecked.

However, relying on one extremist group to contain another is a perilous gamble. Experts warn that this dynamic could fuel the growth of all three groups—Al-Qaeda, ISIS-K, and HTS—creating a volatile situation far beyond the Taliban’s control.

The long-term consequences could be dire for neighboring states. Both HTS and ISIS-K openly speak of exporting jihad to Central Asia — including Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Kazakhstan — as well as Iran. China, too, faces a looming threat, as many HTS fighters in Afghanistan are battle-hardened Uyghurs seeking revenge against Beijing for its policies in Xinjiang.

The deployment of HTS elements to Herat further indicates a strategic intent to use Afghanistan as a launchpad for destabilizing Iran. Observers suggest this may be a top priority for the group’s sponsors, and possibly for the Syrian jihad veterans themselves.