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There were sighs of relief this week when the White House finally confirmed that Donald Trump would accept the credentials of Lord Mandelson as the UK’s ambassador to the US.
The threat that, for the first time ever, an ambassador between the two countries would be rejected had seemed very real with all the potential for personal humiliation on the international stage for Sir Keir Starmer.
But in reality it now appears that the man who in 1987 wrote The Art of the Deal may have just given the British prime minister a lesson in his craft.
After all, Trump is a man who loves a deal, as we are seeing play out with Greenland, Ukraine, TikTok, the Panama Canal and previously with North Korea.
All about leverage
There is no doubt that Trump unleashed the dogs last week on Starmer and his government briefing heavily on the Mandelson issue, in particular raising the prospect that his credentials would be rejected.
But this is a man who knows the power of leverage, as he noted in his book: “’Leverage: don’t make deals without it. Enhance.”
Trump also pointed out: “The worst thing you can possibly do in a deal is seem desperate to make it. That makes the other guy smell blood, and then you’re dead.”
There is no doubt he smelt Starmer’s blood as the Labour government sweated over the Mandelson situation and the complaints about slights against the new president with the 100 Labour activists helping Kamala Harris.
The desperation to get the PM’s nominee into Washington certainly handed the power to Trump, which has left some questioning why Starmer decided to go with Mandelson in the first place.
We should not have been surprised about what has happened because Trump’s people had told Starmer’s chief of staff Morgan McSweeney that they did not want Mandelson.
Add that to all the other perceived insults and Trump’s reflection in his book acts as a warning.
“When people treat me badly or unfairly or try to take advantage of me, my general attitude, all my life, has been to fight back very hard.”
What Trump wants
But what would Trump want to extract from Starmer in an agreement over allowing Mandelson?
As Trump noted in his book: “Money was never a big motivation for me, except as a way to keep score. The real excitement is playing the game.”
There seems to be no doubt that Trump wants Labour to go to some lengths to pull back on the insults they threw his way after he was elected in 2016 for his first term.
It was notable that once his appointment was confirmed Mandelson was on Fox News publicly recanting his previous criticism of Trump and praising 47th president. Similar things have already been said by Starmer and foreign secretary David Lammy.
The biggest thing though will be Trump’s visit to the UK. Sources close to the president have made it clear he was offended that, unlike Barack Obama, he was not allowed to address a joint sitting of the Houses of Parliament. A major reason for that was objections led by Starmer, Lammy, and now minister for the Americas, Stephen Doughty.
A reversal of that position and a speech to the Commons and Lords now looks like it is on the cards.
There will also be agreements regarding Mandelson himself. As one source put it: “He will be kept on a short leash.”
This is particularly in regard to his closeness to China.
Royal flush
In the end though, there is one soft spot with President Trump which the prime minister can and is already exploiting – he loves the royals and adored the late Queen (as he told me himself).
One thing that was suggested from across the Atlantic is that people are now looking for an announcement on a visit to the White House or even Mar-a-Lago by a major royal. Maybe King Charles, more likely the Prince and Princess of Wales.
He would be a huge honour for the president to host a royal visit and one he would personally relish.
Added to that, there is no doubt he will want the royal treatment when he visits the UK – a banquet and the rest.
But diplomatic sources told The Independent Starmer had already identified the power of the royals in dealings with Trump. This was why it was Prince William who was sent to the reopening of Notre Dame in Paris with the arranged meeting with Trump.
“Expect the Prince of Wales to be a regular feature in dealings with the Trump administration,” one diplomat told The Independent last week.
Given what is on the agenda between the UK and US though, the Prince of Wales may need to start buffing up on trade deals.
