If anything, Putin is gearing up for a deeper, longer war. He’s betting Trump will blink first.
According to NATO intelligence, Russia is using the lull in Western aid and growing political fractures in the United States to recalibrate — to stockpile weapons, ramp up production, and build out a war economy sustained by authoritarian alliances.
“Russia can continue to use time to its advantage,” the official warned. And it is. On the battlefield, Ukraine remains outgunned and under-resourced.
The network behind Putin’s war effort now stretches from Pyongyang to Tehran, from Beijing to Minsk. North Korea has become an unlikely — and bloody — partner. Since January, Pyongyang has sent 3500 more troops to join the fight in Kursk, bringing the total to 11,000. These are not support staff. They are fighting. And dying.
“Ukraine has reported that North Korea delivered 148 missiles last year,” the NATO official added, “and they’ve committed to delivering 150 in 2025.”
Iran is also in deep. Its Shahed drones have become a regular presence in Ukrainian skies. At least four shipments of Fateh-360 ballistic missiles have been confirmed. While these don’t shift battlefield dynamics, they allow Russia to conserve its own arsenal – a kind of battlefield buffering system, keeping the Kremlin’s stocks intact for future offensives.
But the most insidious support may be coming from China – not in bombs, but in bolts. Since 2023, Russia has purchased more than $US18.2 billion ($28.7 billion) worth of manufacturing tools and components from Chinese suppliers.
Body bags lie on the ground after the Russian missile strike on Sumy, Ukraine, on Palm Sunday. Western officials say the attack was not a mistake.Credit: AP
“Russia’s defence industry consumes roughly 70 per cent of all machine tools in the country,” the NATO official said. And many of those come through loopholes — Western-designed tech rerouted via Chinese subsidiaries, circumventing sanctions.
This partnership is allowing Russia to do what many thought it couldn’t: rebuild, rearm, and retool.
The question of how long Kyiv can hold out without renewed US support hangs like smoke over NATO’s strategic assessments. When asked, the senior official didn’t hesitate — or reassure: “I don’t have a good assessment of that.”
Yes, Europe is increasing defence spending. Billions of euros have been redirected toward security, weapons, and ammunition. But without American leadership, transatlantic unity begins to crack — and the Kremlin knows it.
“Peace to the world” by Russian artist Alexei Sergienko, showing a combination of faces Putin and Trump.Credit: AP
Putin is not tired. He is not looking for the exit ramp. “160,000 conscripts this spring,” the NATO official said — is evidence of doubling down, not retreating. Russia isn’t interested in a ceasefire. It’s preparing for another push.
Meanwhile, the human cost, which Trump keeps talking about, keeps climbing. Russia has suffered more than 900,000 casualties since the war began. In March alone, 1255 Russians were killed or wounded every single day.
Loading
Despite Trump’s efforts to open up direction negotiations with Russia, the Kremlin’s long-term strategy hasn’t changed.
“We continue to doubt that Putin’s team is coming to the table with good intent,” the NATO official said.
This war will only stop when the Kremlin calculates that the cost of continuing – militarily, economically, and politically – is too high. Until then, the West faces a simple, stark choice: stand firm behind Ukraine or begin preparing for the consequences of its collapse.
