Cairo: Hani Kamal El-Din
In a congratulatory telegram to Donald Trump following his presidential election victory, Chinese President Xi Jinping emphasized the mutual losses both nations face from prolonged confrontation. Xi’s words reflect China’s ongoing commitment to fostering dialogue, even as Trump’s return to the White House sparks predictions of renewed tensions between the world’s two largest powers.
As experts analyze Trump’s second presidency’s potential impact on Sino-U.S. relations, a consensus emerges about the likely intensification of rivalry. The areas of contention are vast, ranging from politics to trade, and particularly in economic and technological domains, raising fears of a potential “U.S.-China Trade War 2.0.”
A History of Escalating Tensions
The strained relationship between the U.S. and China during Trump’s first term saw diplomatic ties plummet to their lowest since 1979, the year relations were first formally established. Central to Trump’s rhetoric were accusations that China “steals American jobs” and threats of imposing steep tariffs, stripping China of favorable trade status, and decoupling technological interdependence.
Now, with Trump’s reelection, these issues are poised to resurface. His MAGA movement’s ideological framework heavily relies on challenging China’s influence, and his newly nominated cabinet members, described as “China hawks,” signal an even tougher stance. While Senate confirmation hearings lie ahead, their selection underscores plans for a stricter approach than that of the outgoing administration.
Military and Diplomatic Pressures
During the Biden administration, a key strategy involved rallying U.S. allies against China. NATO allies labeled China a “systemic challenge,” leading to increased military activities in sensitive zones like the Indo-Pacific region and Taiwan Strait. The formation of AUKUS—an alliance between the U.S., the UK, and Australia—further highlighted strategic confrontations, exacerbating Beijing’s concerns about “bloc confrontations.”
Additionally, Biden’s government intensified U.S. military presence in strategic locations such as the Philippines, doubling the number of bases close to disputed territories in the South China Sea. Parallel to these military maneuvers were diplomatic campaigns addressing China’s human rights record in Xinjiang and Tibet, issues where Washington found alignment with European allies.
Economic Pressures: Tariffs, Technology, and “Friendshoring”
Economically, Biden’s administration not only retained Trump-era tariffs but introduced new restrictions targeting Chinese electric vehicles, solar panels, and lithium batteries. Policies such as “small yard, high fence” further tightened access to cutting-edge technology like semiconductors, with allied nations joining efforts to curb China’s technological advancements.
The concept of “friendshoring” emerged, promoting supply chain adjustments to exclude Chinese firms. This collective economic pressure forced China to recalibrate its strategies, emphasizing domestic demand and technological self-reliance.
The Future of U.S.-China Dialogue
Xi Jinping’s government consistently advocates for dialogue, viewing it as essential for managing bilateral differences and avoiding misjudgments. At the APEC summit in November, Xi reiterated China’s commitment to constructive engagement, calling for mutual respect and peaceful coexistence. On December 3, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi urged the incoming U.S. administration to sustain communication channels, emphasizing that dialogue, while not a panacea, remains crucial for fostering understanding.
Despite measured optimism, Beijing appears wary of Trump’s return, recalling the tumultuous experiences of his first term. While maintaining a composed and cooperative tone in official statements, China harbors no illusions about the challenges ahead.
China’s Strategic Adjustments
To counter potential economic isolation and maintain global influence, China is likely to strengthen ties with the EU, emphasizing free trade and green development. Domestically, China aims to accelerate its economic shift toward internal consumption, a strategy critical to addressing immediate challenges and maintaining long-term stability.
As tensions simmer, Beijing’s approach reflects a dual strategy: readiness to defend its core interests, particularly sovereignty over Taiwan, and a commitment to global cooperation on shared challenges like climate change and economic recovery.
