Top China expert sounds the alarm for Australia – and why the latest military drills could be just the beginning amid warning Beijing is trying to set up a ‘permanent presence’ on our doorstep

A leading China expert has warned that live fire drills are just the beginning as Beijing tries to set up a ‘permanent presence’ between Australia and New Zealand. 

Three Chinese warships conducted live firing exercises 640km off the New South Wales south coast on Friday.

Australian Defence Force officials were first alerted to the drills, not by China, but by a Virgin pilot who heard the ships broadcasting and alerted Airservices Australia at 9.58am that morning. 

A total of 49 commercial flights were forced to change course in an area of busy airspace between Australia and New Zealand, with both Anthony Albanese and Defence Minister Richard Marles saying China had not given sufficient warning.

The Chinese task group, consisting of a frigate, a cruiser and a replenishment vessel, – possibly with a nuclear submarine in the mix, according to the ADF chief – has been navigating down Australia’s east coast for weeks and at one point passed within 270km of Sydney. 

Anne-Marie Brady, a Mandarin-speaking professor at the University of Canterbury who specialises in Chinese domestic and foreign policy, told Daily Mail Australia that the drills were a warning of China’s future intentions. 

‘The livefire exercises in the Tasman are a shot across the bow to Australia and New Zealand of China’s sea power and desire to normalise a permanent presence in the South West Pacific,’ Ms Brady said. 

‘There has been a steady buildup of People’s Liberation Army naval capacity across the South West Pacific.’

Ms Brady said it was worrying that the United States had yet to make any comment on the drills.

‘It is a very bad sign that the US has not offered any public support for Australia during this crisis,’ she said. 

‘The US is obligated to defend Australia under the ANZUS Treaty, and has deepened defence ties still further with the AUKUS Agreement.’

Asked how Mr Albanese should respond, Ms Brady urged him to ‘reach out to other like minded military powers in the Indo-Pacific’ such as France, Japan, Korea and India, as well as Pacific neighbours Papua New Guinea and Fiji. 

She also urged the government to ‘increase defence budgets to better protect Australian interests’.

Donald Rothwell, Professor of International Law at the Australian National University, said China could have easily conducted the exercises on its own shores.

But he warned that the reason China chose this location was ‘to project its military force far beyond its own shores’.

‘These types of activities are also important intelligence gathering exercises,’ he told The Conversation.

‘Each Chinese Navy visit will give it more experience in waters where it does not frequently sail, while also gauging how Australia and New Zealand respond. 

‘Given the increasing cooperation between China and some Pacific Island nations, such as the Cook Islands and Solomon Islands, we should expect the Chinese Navy will become a more frequent visitor to the region.

‘This is also the first instance of China conducting Tasman Sea military exercises. As such, it poses a challenge for how Australia and New Zealand should respond to future Chinese conduct.’ 

He said there is very little Australia can do to obstruct China, but there were three strategies that could be used.

‘First, enhanced air and naval surveillance of China’s activities in these waters is legally permissible. 

‘Constantly shadowing the PLA Navy in the South Pacific, though, would be a drain on stretched defence resources.

‘Both countries would also need to ensure their navies are not in the line of fire to avoid an accident that could spiral into a major conflict.’

He said Australia and New Zealand could also collaborate through organisations such as the International Maritime Organisation and the International Civil Aviation Organisation to establish agreed-upon guidelines for the required advance notice of live-fire tests in international waters. 

‘Finally, both countries could push for negotiations on a regional “naval code of conduct”,’ he said. 

‘Similar codes have been agreed upon by both China and the US in the past. Incidents like this could prove to be a catalyst for more.’

The Chief of the Australian Defence Force, Admiral David Johnston, confirmed at senate estimates on Wednesday that officials had heard about the drills from a Virgin pilot.

The pilot heard an emergency broadcast from the Chinese warships that said the drills would take place between 9.30am and 3pm. 

The pilot notified Airservices Australia at 9.58am, who in turn notified the ADF at 10.10am.

The New Zealand Defence Force also heard the radio warning and passed it on to the ADF at 11.01am. The ADF Chief had a conversation with Mr Albanese about the drills at 4pm.

Admiral Johnston’s version of the events appeared to conflict with that of Mr Albanese, who said last week that the Chinese had given notice of the exercise. 

Opposition home affairs spokesman James Paterson said Mr Albanese’s comments had been misleading. 

‘It’s not really notification of an upcoming exercise if we only find out about it after it has commenced, is it?’ he told senate estimates. 

On Wednesday the Chinese warships re-entered Australia’s Exclusive Economic Zone and are currently about 300km east of Hobart.