Tips and race-by-race guide for Kembla Grange on Thursday

Track Good 4 and rail out 3m from 1100m to WP & True the remainder.

Race 1: CLASS 1 HCP (1000m)

Not much between the leading contenders in the opening sprint, but settled on promising filly 5. Invincible Madison which is out to make it two straight this prep. Was heavily backed before bouncing to the front in a handy maiden at Canberra and giving nothing else a chance. That was only her third start coming off a five-month spell, and staying at the distance and dropping 2kg for this, there’s a ton of progress on offer.
Dangers: Similarly, well-bred 2. Majestuoso Phoenix was very impressive on debut sweeping home from midfield to beat a decent maiden field at Wyong. Small gap to the rest headed by 4. Art’s Alive resuming from a soft draw behind two progressive trials; while lightly raced 3. Stormfield bolted in a country maiden when resuming running a slick time, but this is much tougher. Include in trifecta and first fours 1. Cryptonic, which draws the inside third-up.
How to play it: Invincible Madison to win.

Race 2: CLASS 1 HCP (1600m)

Out to the mile in a similar class, and it shapes as an ideal race for improving 1. How Much Better, which has beaten all but the winner in two runs back from a break. Hits peak fitness now in a race with a little less depth, and the extra 100m is a further plus.
Dangers: Plenty of respect for 2. Lucky Bay, which is hard fit and working towards an overdue second career win, and crucially winkers replace blinkers. Keep safe 5. Sir Sublime, who was very weak after leading comfortably at the Sapphire Coast, but much better suited on firmer ground, with a sharp drop in weight. 7. Gwendie is trained on the track and the best of the rest third-up.
How to play it: How Much Better to win.

Race 3: CLASS 1 & MAIDEN PLATE (2000m)

Hard to go past progressive four-year-old 2. Tastula, who is hard fit, draws the inside, and reloads off a dominant metropolitan win when rock solid in the market. Had previously rushed home late behind the winner at this course before the easy win at Canterbury, and drew to get a lovely trail in behind, only needing a clear run from the top of the straight.
Dangers: Keep safe 9. Lady Justice, which pushes out in distance third-up, and blinkers have been added. 10. Sacro Catino also gets blinkers on third-up coming out of that same race as the top selection; while 3. Unowho improves significantly second-up off a long break.
How to play it: Tastula to win.

Race 4: 4YO & UP MAIDEN PLATE (1400m)

An older maiden battle looks the ticket for emerging four-year-old 6. Shambretta, who was close-up on debut at Hawkesbury right in the market. Fitter now, and is nicely drawn to get a similar run tucked in behind.
Dangers: Progressive mare 10. Oh Diamond Lil almost defied a significant market first-up when beaten under a length at Canterbury. Bred to get further, and should also obtain a lovely run just off speed with cover. Be surprised if one of those two doesn’t win, but 1. Altair I Am can improve further third-up with winkers back on. Don’t dismiss home tracker 8. Montigo Bay at good odds after charging home from the back at Hawkesbury into a place second-up, and gets further weight relief here.
How to play it: Shambretta to win.