First, it overstates the direness of the situation. The United States almost certainly does not have 30 million to 50 million illegal immigrants. A high-end estimate from an anti-immigration advocacy group puts the figure at 18 million to 19 million. That’s a big number; it makes a case for deportations. But it’s far less transformative than 50 million would be.
The 21st-century United States has indeed been embroiled in “a series of pointless wars”. But the debacles of Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya are in the past, and US foreign policy has turned in a more realist direction under Democrats as well as Trump. Even if you take a maximally sceptical view of our support for the Ukrainians, the war in Ukraine is a classic proxy conflict, not another Iraq or Vietnam.
Meanwhile, the peak of woke ideology is, for now, in the past: Today, bestselling author and anti-racism advocate Ibram X. Kendi is increasingly a punchline, the British Supreme Court is vindicating J. K. Rowling, and affirmative action, as well as DEI, is on the ropes.
So at the very least, some “emergency” aspects of our situation are less grim than the black-pilled view would suggest. But just as crucially, many norm-busting responses of the Trump administration are either non-responsive to the alleged emergencies or arguably counterproductive.
The national debt is a real problem. But the Musk attack on federal spending has savaged important programs for the sake of trivial savings, and the profligate budgets being pushed through the House and Senate will very likely swamp any savings.
On immigration, the bitter fights over sending alleged gang members to a Salvadoran prison are not necessarily relevant to the White House’s ability to carry out deportations on a larger scale, since the administration desperately needs more resources for that project, not just more authority.
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In the culture war, conservative success in the struggle against wokeness depends on continuing to convert centrists and even liberals to the cause, and the administration’s all-or-nothing strategy risks making liberal academia a cause for sympathy – a truly counterproductive feat.
Finally, the trade war looks like a debacle. Full stop.
One reason to stress these aspects of the Trump agenda (and the falling poll numbers that indicate their costs) is that black-pilled conservatives are understandably allergic to being lectured (especially from elite pulpits) that the situation isn’t as bleak as they believe.
Better for the critics to meet the black-pilled halfway – with the suggestion that even in a dire situation, you still need a response calibrated to reality, rather than a furious flailing that most likely guarantees defeat.
This article originally appeared in The New York Times.
