The opposite is expected in Jordan Springs-Llandilo and Parramatta North, where the rise of non-working adults is tipped to be 2 per cent, leaving about four in five people toiling in the jobs market.
The number of adults outside the workforce in NSW will rise at around the same pace as new workers over the next 25 years.Credit: Louie Douvis
During the 2050s, the share of the NSW population with a job will fall below 50 per cent for the first time as the number of adults outside the workforce rises at around the same pace as new workers over the next 25 years. The unemployment rate in NSW (now 3.8 per cent) is forecast to be about 3 per cent over four decades to 2066.
KPMG urban economist Terry Rawnsley said local area economies will be gradually transformed as spending patterns shift due to ageing of the population.
“As local populations age, spending at some local high street stores will be reduced,” he said. “That will affect the types of shops you start seeing popping up. There will also be more people requiring health and aged care support services; that will drive demand for whole new sectors in some areas.”
A recent report by the federal government’s Centre for Population predicted NSW’s median age will rise from 38.4 years to 39.7 over the next decade. Outside of Sydney, the median age will reach 45 years by 2034–35 – some 7.4 years older than predicted for the capital (37.6 years).
Business hubs in Sydney’s east have dominated job creation in recent decades, especially the central business district. However, the Transport for NSW modelling shows employment growth will be fastest in western Sydney over the next 30 years, especially near the new airport.
In Western Parklands City, which takes in the local government areas of Camden, Campbelltown, Fairfield, Hawkesbury, Liverpool, Penrith and Wollondilly, jobs growth of 2.2 per cent per year is expected between 2021 and 2041.
“Strong growth will occur in the Western Parkland City with the emergence of the aerotropolis,” the report says.
In the Eastern Harbour City, which includes the CBD, North Sydney and Macquarie Park, jobs growth is forecast to be less than half that rate, at around 1 per cent, in the 20 years to 2041.
The health and knowledge-intensive sectors are set to boom. The four industries forecast to add the most jobs in NSW over the next 25 years are health care and social assistance, professional, scientific and technical services, retail trade and construction.
The NSW population, at 8.5 million, is projected to reach almost 12 million by 2066, with most growth occurring in Greater Sydney, the Hunter and Illawarra. Those regions account for about 79 per cent of the NSW population but will climb to 83 per cent by 2066. Those regions will also have 84 per cent of the state’s jobs by the 2060s.
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