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Tesla’s global annual sales fell for the first time in at least 9 years, with a 2.3% increase in the final quarter not enough to overcome a sluggish start to 2024 despite offers of 0% financing, free charging and low-priced leases.
The Austin, Texas, company delivered 495,570 vehicles from October through December, boosting deliveries to 1.79 million for the full year. But that was 1.1% below 2023 sales of 1.81 million as overall demand for electric vehicles in the U.S. and elsewhere slowed.
The fourth-quarter boost came with a cost. Analysts polled by FactSet expected Tesla’s average sales price to fall to just over $41,000 in the quarter, the lowest in at least four years.
That doesn’t bode well for Tesla’s fourth-quarter earnings, which the company said it would announce on Jan. 29.
In 2022, Tesla predicted that its sales would grow 50% most years, but the prediction ran into an aging model lineup and increased competition in China, Europe and the U.S. In the U.S., analysts say most early adopters of technology already have electric vehicles, and more mainstream buyers have concerns about range, price and the ability to find charging stations on longer trips.
The fourth-quarter deliveries fell short of Wall Street estimates. Analysts polled by data provider FactSet expected sales of 498,000 vehicles.
Tesla shares fell nearly 7% Thursday, but they’re up more than 50% over the last 12 months, surging with the election victory by Donald Trump.
Falling sales early in the year led to once-unheard of discounts for the automaker, cutting into its industry leading profit margins.
Competition from legacy and startup automakers is also growing as they try to nibble away at the company’s market share.
The sales drop is a test to investors who have been pushing up Tesla stock since the election on a bet that the incoming Trump administration will ease EV regulations and help Tesla’s move to making completely self-driving vehicles using AI.
Daniel Ives, a financial analyst at Wedbush, said he thinks the stock is still worth buying despite the sales drop.
“We have never viewed Tesla simply as a car company…instead we have always viewed Musk and Tesla as a leading disruptive technology global player,” said Ives in a report. “And the first part of this grand strategic vision has taken shape.”
William Stein, an analyst at Truist Securities, thinks Tesla will struggle to sell vehicles in future months and expects further discounting used to boost sales will weigh on its financial results.
Nearly all of Tesla’s sales came from the smaller and less-expensive Models 3 and Y, with the company selling only 23,640 of its more expensive models that include X and S, as well as the new Cybertruck.
Tesla’s global electric vehicle sales edged out Chinese rival BYD, which announced Thursday that total soared 41% last year including 1.77 million EVs. The company is vying with Tesla for the world’s top selling EV maker.
Fourth quarter production of 459,445 vehicles was below total deliveries for the quarter, and full year production of 1.77 million was less than the year’s sales.
