Tensions Rise as U.S. and Rebels Aim to Bring Down Assad’s Government
Cairo: Hani Kamal El-Din
In a new development in the Syrian conflict, Washington has once again thrown its weight behind the efforts of opposition forces aiming to topple President Bashar al-Assad’s government. The latest escalation marks a significant shift in the trajectory of the war, with a coordinated strategy intended to alter the balance of power in favor of anti-Assad rebels.
The leader of the Syrian opposition group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, made headlines this week with an exclusive interview where he confidently outlined his vision for Syria’s future. His remarks, delivered to international journalists, signal a major strategic push to dismantle Assad’s rule and create what he described as a “democratic” Syria.
Al-Jolani’s bold claims came amid the rapid advance of opposition forces towards the strategically crucial city of Homs. Speaking before foreign reporters, the leader of HTS, a powerful Islamist faction, detailed his group’s goals, emphasizing that the primary objective remains the overthrow of Assad’s regime. He hinted that, once this goal is achieved, HTS could potentially disband, as its purpose would be fulfilled.
“The revolution is about toppling this regime. We have the right to use every available means to achieve this goal,” al-Jolani declared in a candid interview with CNN. He further insisted that Assad’s regime was doomed, despite the desperate attempts by both Iranian and Russian forces to prop it up. “The Iranians tried to revive the regime, delaying the inevitable, and then the Russians also tried to support it. But the truth is, this regime is dead,” he asserted.
Earlier reports had indicated that al-Jolani visited the opposition-controlled city of Aleppo, walking through the streets with his supporters in tow. Despite being named a terrorist by the United States, which has placed a $10 million bounty on his head, al-Jolani displayed unwavering confidence and calm during his interactions with Western media. His demeanor stood in stark contrast to the image of a hunted fugitive, as seen with groups like Al-Qaeda or ISIS.
On December 5, during the chaos of the ongoing Hama offensive, al-Jolani took a bold step, meeting with American journalists in broad daylight and with minimal security. Observers noted that he acted less like a wanted criminal and more like a seasoned politician, carefully controlling the narrative.
Al-Jolani took the opportunity to distance himself from more radical Islamist groups, emphasizing that under his vision for Syria, ethnic and religious minorities would be protected. He specifically assured Christians that under his leadership, they would live in safety. “During periods of chaos, there were instances of the persecution of some religious minorities, but we have resolved these issues,” al-Jolani remarked, addressing concerns about the security of Syria’s minorities.
In a surprising revelation, al-Jolani also disclosed his personal transformation, acknowledging the changes that come with age and experience. “The person I was at 20 is different from the person I am at 30, and even more so at 50. This is the nature of human beings,” he reflected.
Al-Jolani’s remarks signaled an attempt to rebrand both himself and his group. In an effort to reshape his public image, he publicly revealed his true name for the first time: Ahmad al-Sharaa. According to al-Jolani, like many Syrians, he now has little to fear from those who once sought his demise.
Looking ahead, al-Jolani painted a picture of Syria’s post-Assad future, one in which institutions would replace arbitrary rule. He emphasized the need for a democratic system where power is vested in an elected council, not a single ruler making unilateral decisions. “Syria deserves a system of governance based on institutions, not one where a single leader makes arbitrary decisions,” he stated.
Further elaborating on the broader vision for Syria’s future, al-Jolani described the revolution as part of a larger project—“building Syria.” He reassured his audience that Hayat Tahrir al-Sham was merely one part of this broader dialogue, and the organization could dissolve at any time once its mission is accomplished. “Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is just a part of this dialogue. It is not an end in itself, but a means to an end: standing against this regime,” he asserted.
Al-Jolani also expressed a desire for foreign forces to withdraw from Syria. “Once the regime falls, the issue will be resolved, and there will no longer be any need for foreign troops to remain in the country,” he said, signaling a shift in the opposition’s strategy to regain sovereignty.
Recent reports indicate that opposition forces, following the capture of Hama, have advanced within a few kilometers of Homs, a key strategic city. Military units loyal to Assad have reportedly retreated in disarray, failing to establish a robust defense line around the city.
American outlet Business Insider has reported that the ability of Assad’s allies, Iran and Russia, to support his regime is severely limited. While both countries have previously intervened decisively in the Syrian conflict to assist Assad, their current capacity to alter the course of the war is questioned by many experts.
Analysts note that during earlier stages of the war, Iran and Russia were instrumental in propping up Assad’s regime. Iran entered the fray in 2013, sending its powerful Lebanese ally Hezbollah to support Assad, while Russia’s intervention in 2015 helped turn the tide in Assad’s favor. However, recent developments suggest that their military presence is not sufficient to reverse the growing momentum of the opposition forces.
Despite attempts by Iran to bolster Assad’s defenses with Iraqi militias and Russian airstrikes to slow the opposition’s advance, the scale of these efforts pales in comparison to the intensity of the rebels’ offensive. Hezbollah, Iran’s primary regional proxy, has notably refrained from significant involvement in the current conflict, focusing its efforts on recovering from recent losses in Lebanon.
“I am not sure that Iran can assemble enough forces in time to turn the tide. Hezbollah, which has been Tehran’s main tool in Syria for the last decade, is now bogged down in Lebanon, recovering from the wounds inflicted by Israel during the two-month war. The ceasefire in Lebanon is fragile, and while conflict could erupt again at any moment, I don’t believe Hezbollah has the manpower to make a decisive difference in Syria,” said Aron Lund, a researcher at Century International and a Middle East analyst at the Swedish Defense Research Agency.
Alternative strategies for Iran include mobilizing more Iraqi militia fighters or sending regular forces from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps or its regular army to Syria. However, Iran’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Abbas Araghchi, recently stated that the issue of sending additional troops could be considered if the Syrian government formally requests it. Yet, any such move would expose Iranian forces to immediate Israeli airstrikes.
“Iran might try to send more weapons and ammunition,” said Barbara Slavin, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center in Washington, and the founder of the “Future of Iran Initiative” at the Atlantic Council. “Iran hopes Russian airstrikes can slow the opposition’s advance, while Tehran is also increasing behind-the-scenes talks with Turkey. However, Ankara has limited leverage over Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which complicates Turkey’s role in the ongoing negotiations.”
Experts agree that Iran faces a challenging situation. “Iran is in a difficult position, lacking the necessary military, economic, and political leverage to alter the situation on the ground,” said Araz Azizi, a senior lecturer in history and political science at Clemson University.
