Syria Civil War: Origins and Transformation of HTS
HTS, Syria’s most powerful insurgent group, has undergone significant evolution since its establishment. Initially formed in 2011 as Jabhat al-Nusra, an al-Qaida affiliate, the group was an effective force against Assad’s government but espoused a jihadist ideology that set it apart from the broader Free Syria coalition. In 2016, HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani announced a break from al-Qaida, leading to the group’s rebranding as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or the “Organization for the Liberation of the Levant.” Despite its efforts to present itself as a more civilian-oriented and localized force, HTS remains designated as a terrorist organization by the U.S. and the United Nations.
Jolani, a former participant in the Iraqi insurgency against U.S. forces and a key figure in HTS’s rise, has explicitly stated the group’s aim: “The offensive’s purpose is to overthrow Assad’s government.” This declaration underscores the group’s enduring focus on dismantling Assad’s regime, even as questions persist about its governance model and human rights record.
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Syria Civil War: The Rebel Alliance: Fragile Cooperation
The HTS-led offensive has brought together a tenuous alliance of rebel factions, including the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA). While these groups share the common goal of opposing Assad, their broader objectives diverge. The SNA, supported by Turkey, seeks to establish a buffer zone near the Turkish border to counter Kurdish militias—long viewed as a security threat by Ankara. Turkish officials, however, have distanced themselves from the current offensive, with Turkey urging reconciliation efforts in Syria and denying direct involvement.
Analysts warn that the alliance between HTS and SNA may not endure if Assad’s government falls. Historical rivalries between the factions and differing visions for Syria’s future could quickly lead to conflict. The SNA’s priorities align closely with Turkey’s regional strategy, while HTS maintains its ambitions for broader political and military dominance.Also Read: New page written in history, remain committed to serving citizens: Syrian Foreign Min after end of Assad’s rule
Syria: A Changing Battlefield
The offensive has sparked action across Syria, as other opposition groups seize the opportunity to advance. In southern Syria, local forces have captured Sweida, a Druze heartland known for anti-government protests, and Daraa, a Sunni-majority region considered the birthplace of the 2011 uprising. Meanwhile, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), backed by the U.S., maintain control over large swaths of the east, where clashes with other factions have occurred in the past.
Assad’s government now retains control over only three provincial capitals: Damascus, Latakia, and Tartus. The fall of Homs, Syria’s third-largest city, to rebel forces would sever the vital connection between Damascus and Assad’s coastal stronghold, further isolating his regime. As Damascus faces encirclement, a commander with the rebels, Hassan Abdul-Ghani, declared on Telegram that the “final stage” of the offensive has begun.
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Syria Civil War: Geopolitical Shifts and Assad’s Isolation
The renewed conflict comes at a time when Assad’s key allies are facing their own crises. Russia, distracted by its protracted war in Ukraine, has been less active in providing military support. Iran, another major backer of Assad, has seen its proxy forces, including Hezbollah, weakened by the recent conflict with Israel. As a result, Assad appears increasingly isolated on the international stage.
The United Nations special envoy for Syria, Geir Pedersen, has called for urgent talks in Geneva to facilitate an orderly political transition. The rapidly evolving situation, Pedersen noted, underscores the need for immediate international engagement to prevent further destabilization.
As the Syrian government teeters on the brink, questions loom about the country’s future. The swift advance of rebel forces raises the prospect of a post-Assad Syria marked by factional infighting and competing regional influences. Whether the HTS-SNA alliance can hold or devolve into renewed conflict remains to be seen.
Meanwhile, President Assad’s resolve appears unshaken in his public rhetoric. In remarks reported by state media, Assad vowed to “defend Syria’s stability and territorial integrity against terrorists and their supporters.” Yet, with Damascus under siege and much of the country in rebel hands, Assad’s grip on power has never been more tenuous.
This unfolding chapter of Syria’s civil war has reignited global attention on a conflict that has already claimed over 500,000 lives and displaced millions. The coming weeks may determine not only the fate of Assad’s regime but also the future trajectory of Syria as a nation.
