Syria bids farewell to half a century of Assad rule, Russia loses a key ally
Cairo: Hani Kamal El-Din
The Syrian regime has collapsed under pressure from anti-government forces, marking the end of over half a century of Assad family rule. President Bashar al-Assad fled Damascus after the government system collapsed and the army failed to stop the advancing rebels. Later, it was revealed that he had arrived in Moscow. As various factions seize control across Syria, global powers are now vying for dominance in this strategic region. Amid the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, Assad’s ouster could open a new front against Russia, which had previously worked to maintain the regime and Syria’s territorial integrity. However, Russia’s remaining military presence in the country still serves as both a concern and a potential bargaining chip in negotiations with armed opposition groups.
The Fragility of Damascus’ Authority
The swift downfall of the last secular authoritarian regime in the Middle East was dramatically different from the events in Iraq and Libya.
On Sunday morning, anti-government forces entered Damascus without encountering any resistance from the Syrian army, which abandoned the capital after opposition units arrived. Some units of the Syrian army defected to the rebels, while others fled, including to neighboring Iraq.
The sudden and unexpected collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s 24-year rule, which had withstood years of civil war, came as a shock. Despite anti-government fighters making significant territorial gains from Idlib province starting on November 27, there was still hope that Syrian forces could contain the Islamist uprising and prevent the fall of the regime.
Government statements from Syria’s Ministry of Defense, which just the day before had reported “repositioning forces according to military plans” and “strikes on terrorists in Hama, Homs, and Daraa,” seemed to assure the public of the government’s strength. These reassurances quickly proved false as events rapidly unfolded.
Assad’s Disappearance and the Role of the Opposition
By Sunday evening, it was reported that Assad had arrived in Moscow, but the question of his whereabouts earlier remained unanswered. Reuters, citing unnamed sources, speculated that Assad may have perished in a plane crash, after his flight from Damascus disappeared from radar.
Meanwhile, in the power vacuum, Prime Minister Muhammad Ghazi al-Jalali stepped forward as the only senior Syrian official able to comment. Al-Jalali, who had contacted opposition fighters from the “Hayat Tahrir al-Sham” terrorist group, announced plans for free elections to establish a new government.
Later, the opposition’s interim government leader, Abdurrahman Mustafa, declared the fall of Assad’s regime as a “new birth” for Syria. The opposition emphasized their commitment to protecting civil institutions and ensuring the safety of the population.
The Destruction of Assad’s Legacy
The first day of Syria’s new reality saw the removal of statues of Hafez al-Assad, Bashar’s father, in Damascus and Homs, symbolizing the erasure of the old regime. A scene reminiscent of Saddam Hussein’s fall in Iraq, crowds celebrated as they dismantled monuments to the founder of the Syrian Arab Republic.
Simultaneously, the looting of government buildings in Damascus unfolded, including the Iranian embassy, while the Russian embassy in Syria continued its operations.
Footage from Damascus showed citizens freely touring the presidential palace, some even taking items from its interior. Reports emerged that the palace was set on fire.
Allies Were Unable to Assist
Assad’s regime crumbled in less than two weeks, despite Russia’s military presence, which included the Khmeimim Air Base and the Russian Navy’s presence in Tartus.
Iran, Hezbollah, and other pro-Iranian groups, which had provided significant ground support, failed to prevent the collapse. Even as volunteer forces from Iraq were reportedly en route to assist, they were too late. The Syrian army’s sudden surrender allowed the rebels to advance almost unopposed.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu commented on the collapse, asserting that the weakening of Assad’s key allies, Iran and Hezbollah, was a result of Israel’s actions. He hailed the fall of Assad as a historic turning point in the Middle East, which would benefit Israel’s strategic position.
The End of Diplomatic Efforts
The armed opposition’s success rendered moot years of diplomatic efforts under the Astana process, which had included Russia, Iran, Turkey, and various other international stakeholders. As these talks dissolved, the situation in Syria began to pivot toward new negotiations with the opposition, which will likely shape the future of the region.
What Comes Next?
With Assad’s fall, the future of Russia’s military presence in Syria is uncertain. Key questions include the fate of Russian military installations, such as the Khmeimim airbase and Tartus naval port, and whether Russia can maintain its influence in a country now potentially governed by Islamist factions linked to terrorist organizations banned in Russia.
On Saturday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov addressed concerns about Russian ships allegedly leaving Tartus, clarifying that military exercises in the Mediterranean may have been misinterpreted by satellite imagery.
The situation in Tartus and Jebla, where opposition forces approached Russian troops, signals a dangerous shift in Syria’s power dynamics and poses a significant challenge for Russian efforts to maintain influence in the region.
