The streamers‘ newly-discovered drive to prioritize profit over subs will soon be felt in the landscape in a big way, according to an Ampere Analysis report.
The firm’s latest deep dive into the SVoD world found that subscription streaming revenues are expected to grow almost three times faster than subscribers over the next five years. Ampere expects plus-30% growth by 2029 as services focus on profitability and per-subscriber monetization. By 2029, the annual revenue of the global subscription streaming market will be more than $190B, with Netflix making up almost one third, according to the report.
While Ampere predicted global subs will hit a milestone by crossing 2 billion by 2029, this 200 million rise over the next five years will be far smaller than the prior five-year period, when subs doubled with people stuck at home during the Covid-19 pandemic.
The analysis is not surprising. With Wall Street turning on the streamers’ drive for subs over profit, Netflix changed course a couple of years ago and was followed by several others. This came alongside market contraction and the Hollywood strikes, which contributed to shifting strategies.
In a bid to boost bottom lines, streamers have introduced measures like ad-tiers and password sharing. Ampere said subscription streaming is expected to generate an additional $22B from ad sales as traditionally ad-free streaming services have pivoted to ad-tiers.
Targeting APAC
Squid Game S2 Lee Jung-jae as Seong Gi-hun in Squid Game S2 Cr. No Ju-han/Netflix © 2024
Broken down by region, Ampere said APAC will be significant for subscriber growth over the coming years, with the U.S. becoming “increasingly saturated.” Streamers like Netflix and Disney have been splashing the cash of late in crucial regions like Korea and India, as the next season of Squid Game gets set for launch.
Ampere predicted just under a third of the subs growth will come from APAC – numbering around 600 million people – a similar figure to North America. During the previous five-year period, North American subs more-than doubled whereas APAC subs were up 57%. The firm also estimated 20% subs gains in the relatively untapped Central and South America and Central and Eastern Europe regions over the next five years.
“Targeting the untapped Asia Pacific region is the most promising strategy for subscriber growth,” said Ampere Research Manager Maria Dunleavey. “To surpass current subscriber expectations, streamers must double down on strategic investments in less saturated markets. India was Netflix’s second-largest subscriber growth market in 2024, and the company has barely scratched the surface there in terms of growth potential.”
