Smile 2 Box Office Opening Weekend Projections

“Smile 2,” a sequel to Paramount’s creepy psychological thriller, is hoping to put a grin on the faces of despondent movie theater owners.

The film is projected to collect $20 million to $25 million from 3,500 North American theaters in its first weekend of release. Those revenues would be on par with the original “Smile,” which was commissioned for streaming before pivoting to a theatrical release and opened to $22.6 million in 2022. It became a sleeper hit with $105 million domestically and $217 million globally. Since “Smile 2” has been generating solid reviews, box office observers believe that initial ticket sales for the sequel could surpass $25 million. However, sources at Paramount are offering a more conservative estimate in the high teens, citing horror sequels like “Don’t Breathe 2” and “It: Chapter Two” that launched below their predecessors. The follow-up film cost $28 million to produce.

Parker Finn returned to direct “Smile 2,” which follows a pop singer who begins to experience a series of disturbing events as she embarks on tour. Naomi Scott stars in the film alongside Rosemarie DeWitt and Lukas Gage. Variety’s chief film critic Owen Gleiberman praised “Smile 2” as “a horror film that strives to create a genuine emotional center,” adding that the best thing about the movie is that “it keeps the audience off balance.”

So far, 2024 hasn’t been a particularly strong year for horror, which is typically one of the most reliable genres to fill seats in multiplexes. In the spooky month of October, the scariest thing at the box office has been the collapse of “Joker: Folie à Deux,” which was primed to be another twisted comic book smash that would pack theaters through the Halloween season. Instead, the sequel to 2019’s billion-dollar hit “Joker” has turned into a box office disaster. After ticket sales cratered by 81% in its second weekend of release, projections aren’t promising for the third outing. The $200 million-budgeted offbeat musical has grossed $53.3 million domestically and $165.8 million globally after two weeks of release. By comparison, the first “Joker” had generated $96.2 million domestically and $248.4 million globally after three days of release. The follow-up isn’t expected to earn that much by the time it leaves theaters.

Elsewhere at the domestic box office, “Terrifier 3,” which was last weekend’s surprise winner, is expected to drop by roughly 65% from its stellar $18.8 million debut. That would put revenues for the ultra-gory, low-budget slasher film at $6 million to $7 million in its second weekend of release.

Also, Universal and DreamWorks Animation’s “The Wild Robot” looks to post another solid hold over the weekend. The well-reviewed family film is aiming for $10 million in its third outing, which would mark a stellar 30% decline from the prior weekend. So far, “The Wild Robot” has generated $87.7 million in North America and $152 million globally.

In limited release, Sean Baker’s Palme d’Or-winning “Anora” will open in six theaters across Los Angeles and New York City. The Neon film, a comic look at an exotic dancer and sex worker who marries the son of a Russian oligarch, will continue to expand its footprint through the fall.

After “Joker: Folie à Deux” failed to scare life into the box office, year-to-date revenues are 11.2% behind the same point in 2023 and 26.4% behind 2019, according to Comscore. So, Hollywood studios and exhibitors are looking to “Smile 2” and “Venom: The Last Dance” (Oct. 25) to salvage the fall season before Thanksgiving releases of “Wicked,” “Gladiator II” and “Moana 2.”