Six Nations title permutations: What Ireland, France and England need to win the championship
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There are just two rounds of the 2025 Six Nations remaining and the title race has taken shape with three teams still harbouring realistic ambitions of lifting the trophy on 15 March.
Ireland are hunting history as they look to become the first team to win three straight Five or Six Nations outright titles and are still on track for a grand slam after downing a surprisingly feisty Wales side 27-18 in Cardiff in round three.
France still appear to be their closest challengers, especially with a monumental game between the sides lined up for round four in Dublin, after Les Bleus took out their frustration over a surprise defeat to England in round two on a helpless Italy – crossing for 11 tries in a French record 73-24 rout.
Speaking of England, the incredibly dramatic wins over France and then Scotland have ignited their hopes of a first Six Nations crown since the Covid-interrupted 2020 edition. Slightly ‘friendlier’ remaining fixtures against Italy and Wales will give Steve Borthwick’s men belief that they can steal in and pinch the title away from their more-fancied foes.
Here’s what each team needs to win the title but first, a look at the current table and the remaining fixtures:
Remaining 2025 Six Nations fixtures
Round four
- Saturday 8 March: Ireland v France – Aviva Stadium, Dublin (2.15pm, ITV)
- Saturday 8 March: Scotland v Wales – Murrayfield, Edinburgh (4.45pm, BBC)
- Sunday 9 March: England v Italy – Allianz Stadium, Twickenham (3pm, ITV)
Round five
- Saturday 15 March: Italy v Ireland – Stadio Olimpico, Rome (2.15pm, ITV)
- Saturday 15 March: Wales v England – Principality Stadium, Cardiff (4.45pm, BBC)
- Saturday 15 March: France v Scotland – Stade de France, Paris (8pm, ITV)
IRELAND
As mentioned above, Ireland are the favourites to win this year’s championship and are the only side with a 100 per cent record so far after victories against England, Scotland and Wales.
The easiest route to the title for interim coach Simon Easterby’s men is securing victories over France and Italy in the final two rounds to seal the grand slam. In fact, a draw with France and win over Italy would also be enough to lift the trophy providing it was either accompanied by at least one bonus point or their final points difference was better than England’s if both teams ended on 20 tournament points.
If Ireland lose to France (who they currently lead by three tournament points) in round four, then things would get complicated and the exact situation would depend on bonus points, final-day results and potentially points difference. Given France’s mammoth points difference of +91 following big wins over Wales and Italy, realistically Ireland (currently +28 points difference) will need to finish at least one point above them in the final reckoning to take the title. That would require either getting multiple bonus points in a loss to France or Scotland doing them a favour by avoiding defeat to Les Bleus on the final day.
FRANCE
France reignited their title hopes with a thrashing of Italy in round three which, combined with their 43-0 triumph over Wales on the opening day, means they will almost certainly have the advantage in points difference if they finish level on tournament points with another nation.
Their title chances will be over if they fail to win either of their remaining two games but beat Ireland in Dublin and they are right in the hunt. They currently trail Ireland by three tournament points, so restricting them to no more than one bonus point in defeat would guarantee Fabien Galthie’s troops finishing above the men in green providing they then score a bonus-point victory over Scotland on Super Saturday.
They currently lead England by one tournament point and points difference, rather than head to head record, being the determining factor if teams finish level on points plays to their advantage. Two bonus-point wins would take England to 20 tournament points, meaning France would need nine from their last two matches to match them (and then beat them on points difference). Scoring four tries in one of their final two victories would achieve that goal.
ENGLAND
England have the trickiest route to the title and any realistic hope begins with them securing bonus-point wins over Italy and Wales in the final two rounds to move to 20 tournament points.
Even then, Borthwick’s men will be relying on results elsewhere, starting with France beating Ireland in round four. If Ireland don’t get any bonus points while losing that contest, then England will be guaranteed to finish above them with two bonus-point wins. However, if Ireland get one bonus point in defeat to Les Bleus, then it would come down to points difference between the sides should the men in green secure a bonus-point win over Italy in round five and Ireland currently have a healthy advantage there (+28 to -3).
While England need France to beat Ireland in round four, they could do with victory not being too convincing. Given France’s uncatchably superior points difference (+91 to -3), England cannot afford them to end the Six Nations on more than 19 tournament points. That is eight more than their current total, meaning that two French wins without a four-try bonus point would still allow England to finish above them but a try bonus point in either victory would make that impossible.
If France do secure a bonus-point win over Ireland, then England would be relying on a favour from Scotland on the final day by avoiding defeat.
