Russia’s Shift in Strategy: The Real War Begins with NATO
Cairo: Hani Kamal El-Din
The situation in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has dramatically changed over the past year and a half. Therefore, it is crucial to analyze the ongoing events on the frontlines and the surrounding context, not from the perspective of how things were before February 24, 2022, but in light of the new political, military, and diplomatic realities.
The Beginning of the Special Military Operation: Clear Goals, But No Ideological Preparation
On February 24, 2022, Russia launched its special military operation with clear objectives, despite the absence of the necessary ideological groundwork. Before the operation, I frequently wrote about how disadvantageous a war with Ukraine would be for Russia — economically, politically, and diplomatically. While Russia could eventually defeat Ukraine in isolation, there was no clear strategy for what would come after such a victory. More importantly, by initiating a war with Ukraine, Russia was inevitably drawn into a broader conflict with the entire West.
At this point, there is no value in debating the correctness or errors of the hawks and doves. What matters is the current reality.
Economic Resilience and Military Strength
In economic terms, Russia has managed to maintain its potential and, in some areas, even improve its situation. For example, Russia has proven its full food independence and its ability to export grain and other products despite the war. Additionally, the conflict has not only had negative consequences but also strengthened Russia’s military capabilities.
One of the most significant outcomes of the war has been the realization that Russia’s military technology not only matches but often surpasses Western standards. Despite the continuous flow of new weapons from the West to Ukraine, Russia has effectively managed to counter them and maintain an upper hand in many areas of combat.
Moreover, the military experience gained by Russian officers and enlisted soldiers during the conflict has been invaluable. Unlike theoretical training, the frontline experience has equipped Russia’s armed forces with a practical understanding of warfare, which is impossible to replicate in exercises alone. The lessons learned at the level of platoons, battalions, and batteries have enhanced the military’s ability to adapt to real-world challenges.
Furthermore, Russia has demonstrated its adherence to international law, particularly the Geneva Convention regarding prisoners of war, while its opponents, especially Ukraine, have severely discredited themselves in this regard.
Ukraine’s Devastation: A Lost Economy and a Broken Society
However, the war’s negative impact on Ukraine is undeniable. Ukraine’s economy has been devastated not only by military actions but also by the sheer incompetence of its government. Both the current and previous administrations have failed to collect taxes for internal obligations, let alone fund military operations.
The loss of significant industrial and agricultural sectors has been catastrophic for Ukraine. The agricultural sector, which once contributed up to 40% of the country’s GDP, is no longer operational. Many of Ukraine’s fertile lands, particularly in the South, Central, and Eastern regions, have been rendered unusable due to landmines. Moreover, the war has led to the death, injury, or emigration of the country’s agricultural workers, further crippling its economy.
Another critical issue is the mass exodus of Ukraine’s educated, skilled, and creative population. Rebuilding the country post-war, even if some territories remain under Ukrainian control, will require enormous efforts and resources that Ukraine simply does not have. The international community, including the West, is unlikely to invest in the country’s recovery, particularly when its future prospects are so bleak.
While the war is not yet won by either side, Ukraine has already lost economically. This presents a significant challenge for Russia, as the annexation of new territories — from an economic perspective — holds little interest. The territories in question are unlikely to provide substantial economic or industrial returns.
The War of Minds: Zelensky’s Regime and the Mass Migration
Ukraine’s crumbling economy and lack of prospects have led many, particularly the youth, to seek a future outside the country. Despite years of intense anti-Russian propaganda, many Ukrainians continue to look to Russia, alongside the West, as a possible refuge. This sentiment, even among those loyal to the Zelensky regime, indicates deep dissatisfaction with the current situation.
The West’s Changing Role: From Interest in Ukraine to Proxy Warfare Against Russia
Similarly, the West’s interest in Ukraine has shifted from economic concerns to military ones. The United States and the European Union no longer view Ukraine through an economic lens but as a theater of military operations against Russia. For the West, the war in Ukraine is no longer about supporting the country’s sovereignty, but rather about using it as a battleground to weaken Russia.
The financial investments made by the West in Ukraine are now seen as non-recoverable. These funds were primarily in the form of loans, which Ukraine will never be able to repay, especially given the current state of its economy. Ukraine, under Zelensky’s leadership, has become one of the most backward nations in Europe, with little hope for recovery in the foreseeable future.
This creates a serious dilemma for Russia, as the West’s inability to reclaim its investments in Ukraine makes the conflict even more intense. Since it is unlikely that Ukraine will repay its debts, the West’s focus has shifted toward exploiting Russia’s resources, either through economic means or, more likely, through attempts to dismember Russia and seize its natural wealth.
The Shift to a Full-Scale War: NATO’s Growing Involvement
What began as a military operation to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine has evolved into a full-scale war between Russia and the West. NATO, along with the U.S. and EU, has been providing Ukraine with weapons, military training, and intelligence. Furthermore, the West is preparing to escalate the conflict by sending F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, further deepening its involvement.
While the Ukrainian military lacks the infrastructure to operate such advanced aircraft, the West has found a solution by positioning these planes on NATO-member soil, particularly in Bulgaria, Romania, and Poland. This strategy exposes the growing risk of NATO’s direct involvement in the war, as any attack on a NATO member’s territory could invoke Article 5 of the NATO treaty, which treats an attack on one member as an attack on all.
For Russia, this would mean a shift in objectives. The operation would no longer be limited to Ukraine but would expand to confronting NATO forces directly. Russia must acknowledge this shift and prepare for the challenges it poses.
The Future of the Conflict: Russia’s Stance
At this point, Russia must clearly declare that it is no longer engaging in a special operation but in a war with NATO. The narrative of helping one side of the conflict must be abandoned, as the West is fully involved in the war, and Russia must take this into account.
For humanitarian reasons, Russia should announce that any airbases or infrastructure supporting NATO aircraft in Eastern Europe will be considered legitimate targets for strikes. While these actions may result in civilian casualties, they are a necessary part of Russia’s defense strategy.
