Russian air defence likely behind Azerbaijan Airlines plane crash that killed 38 people, military experts say
The deadly Christmas Day crash of an Azerbaijani plane in Kazakhstan was likely caused by a Russian air defence system, military and aviation experts have said.
It comes after sources close to Azerbaijan’s investigation into the incident said fire from a Russian Pantsir-S air defence system was believed to be behind the devastating crash, in which 38 people were killed and 29 injured.
But Moscow has downplayed the accusations, saying it is wrong to speculate on “hypotheses” before the outcome of a full investigation.
Azerbaijan Airlines’ Embraer 190 was scheduled to land in the Russian city of Grozny in the North Caucasus on Wednesday after taking off from Baku – before it was diverted for reasons which have not yet been confirmed.
The plane exploded in a fireball after crashing into the ground just 3km (2 miles) from Aktau, Kazakhstan, where it had hoped to land after flying east across the Caspian Sea. Mobile phone footage appears to show the aircraft’s steep descent before hitting the ground.
Subhonkul Rakhimov, a survivor of the crash who is now in hospital, told Reuters he “thought the plane was going to fall apart” and that it was acting “drunk” after a loud bang. Mr Rakhimov began reciting prayers and preparing for the end after the bang, he said.
Preliminary investigations in Azerbaijan have found Russian air defences were responsible for the crash, four sources told Reuters. The plane’s communications had been cut off by electronic warfare systems on its approach to Grozny, one of the sources said.
“No one claims that it was done on purpose. However, taking into account the established facts, Baku expects the Russian side to confess to the shooting down of the Azerbaijani aircraft,” the sources added.
Azerbaijan Airlines said on Friday that preliminary investigations showed the plane had experienced “external and technical interference” prior to the crash.
Analysis of images of the crashed plane shows it was almost certainly hit by a surface-to-air missile (SAM), according to Mark Zee of the OPSGroup, which monitors the world’s airspace and airports for risks. He said the likelihood of a SAM attack being behind the crash is “well into the 90-99% bracket”.
Independent Russian military expert Yan Matveyev drew similar conclusions from the images. “It looks like the tail section of the plane was damaged by some missile fragments,” he told the Associated Press.
It is unclear why the pilots decided to fly hundreds of miles east instead of attempting to land in another Russian airport after the plane was hit, Mr Matveyev said.
“Perhaps some of the plane’s systems kept working for some time and the crew believed that they could make it and land normally,” he added, suggesting also that the crew may have faced restrictions on landing in Russia.
Russia’s aviation watchdog, Rosaviatsia, said the flight had rerouted from its original destination in Chechnya due to heavy fog and a local alert regarding Ukrainian drones. It claimed the captain of the plane was offered other airports at which to land but chose Kazakhstan’s Aktau.
