It’s beginning to look a lot like $30 million for the opening weekend of Dwayne Johnson and Chris Evans‘ mega-budget Christmas actioner “Red One,” coming in on the shorter side of projections. The Amazon MGM Studios feature unwrapped $10.9 million from 4,032 theaters across opening day and preview screenings in North America.
That’s not exactly a jolly result for a special-effects adventure playing premium large format auditoriums and sporting a whopping $250 million production budget, plus sizable marketing costs. Unless the Seven Bucks production can stay relevant among the blitz of “Wicked,” “Gladiator II” and “Moana 2” arriving ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, it seems unlikely that “Red One” will see green in its theatrical run.
The question remains of how much Amazon really cares about being associated with lukewarm theatrical returns, what with the market cap north of $2 trillion and all. The cost of “Red One” doesn’t seem as daunting in that context. Amazon bid big for the project back in 2021 and the presumed logic is that the film can be a holiday season monster on Prime Video, where it can also supplement Amazon’s e-commerce business amid holiday shopping. Additionally, “Red One” was originally commissioned as a Prime Video exclusive before Amazon added a wide release, so any box office profits are presumably just extra stocking stuffers to the company.
For Amazon MGM, “Red One” will easily score the banner’s largest opening weekend since “Creed III,” which was commissioned under MGM’s old regime and released just a year after its acquisition. And “Red One” is on a brighter path than last spring’s Apple play “Argylle,” another expensive action movie with franchise potential. That film carried a $200 million price tag and finished with $96 million worldwide before hitting Apple TV+, which has a significantly smaller reach than Amazon Prime.
Even so, there’s some bah humbugging to be had with “Red One” as a test of its stars’ theatrical draw. The film won’t match the opening weekends of either of Johnson’s previous two vehicles, “Black Adam” ($67 million) and “Jungle Cruise” ($35 million), the latter of which simultaneously launched on Disney+ as a premium rental. And it’s not a triumphant theatrical return for Evans, whose leading live-action roles have lived on streaming since he finished playing Captain America in the Marvel Cinematic Universe.
“Red One” is directed by Jake Kasdan and follows a plot of combat-trained specialists rescuing a kidnapped Santa Claus (J.K. Simmons). Critics panned the movie, but audiences are much more merry, with moviegoer pollster Cinema Score turning in a positive A- grade among early ticketbuyers. It’ll need to be on the public’s nice list for the chance to keep drawing audiences.
Sony’s “Venom: The Last Dance” should slide to second after spending three weekends on top of domestic charts, looking at $6.1 million for a 61% drop in its fourth outing. The Marvel spin-off has now surpassed $120 million in North America and $400 million worldwide. Holding well after an underwhelming launch, it now seems Tom Hardy’s buddy comedy won’t finish too far off from its franchise predecessor “Let There Be Carnage,” which finished with a global gross of $500 million.
Third goes to “The Best Christmas Pageant Ever,” eyeing a 54% drop for $6 million. The Kingdom Story Company production will cross $20 million domestic shortly after the weekend, giving Lionsgate another solid theatrical performer off a $10 million production budget.
A24’s psychological thriller “Heretic” looks to slide to fourth place, with rivals projecting a $4.6 million sophomore outing. That’d be a 57% drop. The Hugh Grant horror film will also cross $20 million through Monday.
Universal’s “The Wild Robot” looks to round out the top five, projecting another slim drop (-32%) to bolster its gross with another $4.5 million. The DreamWorks Animation production is still kicking around the top of the charts in its eighth weekend of release. It looks to hit a $137 million domestic total through Sunday. After that, it will pass fellow Lupita Nyong’o starrer “A Quiet Place: Day One” ($138 million) to notch itself as the 12th highest-grossing North American release of the year.
