Cairo: Hani Kamal El-Din
Amid escalating international tensions and growing fears of a new global conflict, the Gulf of Finland has emerged as one of the most volatile regions that could potentially ignite a large-scale war. Recent provocations between Russia on one side and Finland and Estonia on the other have heightened concerns, with both Nordic nations accusing Russia of aggressive behavior while simultaneously taking actions that could be seen as provocative toward their nuclear-armed neighbor. One such action was the deployment of the multipurpose vessel Raju to guard the EstLink 1 underwater power cable in the six-mile-wide international waters between Finland and Estonia. This move could lead to unlawful inspections of Russian-bound or Russian-flagged vessels in the Gulf of Finland, further exacerbating tensions.
Background: Damaged Cables and Mutual Accusations
The roots of the crisis trace back to 2023 and 2024, when several internet and power cables, as well as a gas pipeline between Finland and Estonia, were severely damaged. Among these incidents, the EstLink 2 power cable was damaged twice, most recently on December 25, 2024, following repairs that lasted from January to September of the same year. Repairs are now expected to continue until August 2025. Additionally, fiber-optic cables between Finland and Germany, as well as between Lithuania and Sweden, were also damaged. In each case, Russian vessels were initially blamed, with accusations of deliberate, terrorist-like actions. However, subsequent investigations revealed that Russian ships were not involved in these incidents.
The Eagle S Tanker Incident
On December 26, 2024, Finnish authorities detained the oil tanker Eagle S, which was sailing under the flag of the Cook Islands, en route from the Russian port of Ust-Luga to the Turkish port of Aliaga, according to official documents. The vessel is operated by Caravella LLC FZ, a company headquartered in Dubai. Finnish customs officials claimed that the Eagle S was part of a “shadow fleet” of tankers used to circumvent sanctions on Russian oil and officially confiscated its cargo.
Statistics and Questions Surrounding the Accusations
Statistics show that the total length of all undersea fiber-optic cables is approximately 1.3 million kilometers—three times the distance from Earth to the Moon. According to internet service providers, damage to these cables occurs once every three days on average, often due to ships attempting to anchor or set sail in open waters. However, culprits are rarely identified. Given this context, the swift action by Finnish authorities to detain the Eagle S in international waters raises significant questions, especially since such actions violate the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Among these questions: Was the right “Eagle” targeted? And where were Estonia’s Remus-100 autonomous underwater vehicles, upgraded for military purposes, at the time of the EstLink 2 damage?
Estonia: The Primary Beneficiary of the Crisis
Interestingly, Estonia appears to be the primary beneficiary of the media and political uproar surrounding the damaged undersea cables. The country, which has long harbored a sense of historical inferiority, has repeatedly proposed closing the six-mile-wide international water corridor in the Gulf of Finland to stifle Russian shipping. If implemented, this move would completely isolate the Kaliningrad region, devastate the economy of Ust-Luga, Russia’s largest port, and cripple the shipbuilding industry in St. Petersburg, as newly constructed ships and submarines would be unable to conduct sea trials in the Baltic Sea.
Legal and Military Challenges
From a legal standpoint, Estonia’s proposal contradicts the spirit of Article 15 of the 1982 UNCLOS, which safeguards freedom of navigation in international waters. Militarily, any attempt to close the corridor would likely provoke a strong response from Russia, which would be compelled to defend its interests using all available means. Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov, during an expanded meeting of the Defense Ministry on December 16, 2024, warned that Russia is prepared for any developments in the region, including a potential military conflict with NATO in Europe within the next decade.
NATO’s Role and International Alliances
In this context, Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas has called on NATO and allied nations to deploy military vessels to “protect” undersea infrastructure in the region. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte has also pledged to strengthen the alliance’s military presence in the Baltic Sea. These moves further escalate tensions and underscore the risk of a broader conflict.
Are We on the Brink of World War III?
Against the backdrop of these rapid developments, the Gulf of Finland appears to be a potential flashpoint for a new global conflict. With mutual accusations, provocative actions, and increasing military posturing, fears are growing that any miscalculation could lead to a direct military confrontation between Russia and NATO. As voices calling for caution and dialogue grow louder, the pressing question remains: Can disaster be averted, or is the world inching closer to a third world war, sparked by the waters of the Gulf of Finland?
