Cairo: Hani Kamal El-Din
Following the recent elections in Brandenburg, the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD), led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, secured a narrow victory, but the gap between them and the Alternative for Germany (AfD) is just one percent. To form a majority government in Brandenburg, the SPD will likely have to negotiate with another political opponent, the Wagenknecht Union (SSW). What is happening in Germany’s political landscape?
The Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD), headed by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, won the regional elections in Brandenburg by a slim margin. According to the final results, 30.89% of voters supported the SPD. Coming in second was the Alternative for Germany (AfD) with 29.23% of the votes. The Wagenknecht Union (SSW) followed with 13.48%, and the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) rounded out the top four with 12.1%.
The ruling coalition members, the Greens and the Free Democratic Party (FDP), did not pass the 5% threshold required to enter the regional parliament. The Left Party also failed to meet this electoral requirement. The election commission reported a voter turnout of 72.9%.
Based on the data, both the SPD and AfD improved their standings compared to the previous elections in 2019, while the CDU showed weaker results than five years ago. Historically, the Social Democrats have dominated elections in Brandenburg since 1990.
The regional elections in Germany’s eastern states have generally produced surprising results. Earlier in September, the AfD won the elections in Thuringia with 32.8% of the vote. The CDU and SSW ranked second and third, respectively, while the SPD garnered only 6.1% of the vote.
Similarly, in Saxony, the Christian Democrats led with 30.6%, but the AfD trailed closely behind with 29.3%. The Wagenknecht Union also exceeded expectations, earning 11.8% of the vote. Following these results, AfD co-chairs Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla described the outcome as a “historic success,” as reported by ZDF.
Expert Opinions on SPD’s Victory in Brandenburg
Experts have noted the significance of the regional elections, with European political analysts closely observing the results. As reported by Bild in late August, these elections have the potential to reshape German politics by significantly strengthening opposition parties like the AfD and SSW. The newspaper “VZGLYAD” also explored how the campaign in the former GDR might influence Berlin’s aid to Ukraine.
Former Bundestag member Waldemar Gerdt commented on the election results, arguing that the SPD’s victory was only possible due to “behind-the-scenes agreements” with traditional political forces to prevent the AfD from gaining control. He suggested that after the setbacks in Thuringia and Saxony, the SPD aligned with parties like the CDU to counter the growing influence of the AfD. “Their primary argument was that an AfD victory would initiate processes unfavorable for the ruling authorities,” Gerdt explained.
Gerdt pointed out that some politicians from the CDU even openly campaigned for the SPD. He believes the CDU hoped that by doing so, smaller parties like the Greens and liberals would lose ground, making them potential coalition partners. However, these manipulations backfired, with the CDU performing worse than in the previous elections. “They can no longer govern alone,” Gerdt emphasized.
Moreover, Gerdt predicted that efforts to halt the AfD’s rise in popularity would likely fail. “The AfD represents the future. However, the party needs to modernize itself internally. Being an opposition force is one thing, but governing the country is another,” Gerdt noted.
In his view, the post-election negotiations in Brandenburg will be challenging. “It is possible that the SPD will need to negotiate with the Wagenknecht Union, despite significant ideological differences, particularly regarding aid to Ukraine,” Gerdt said.
“If a coalition forms, Wagenknecht may reverse her previous statements on cooperation with Kyiv, or the Social Democrats will have to make concessions. This could reveal whether the SSW was created to divide the AfD’s vote,” Gerdt mused.
He also considered the possibility of a coalition between the CDU and SPD, which could result in a minority government in Brandenburg. “Such a scenario has occurred before. If it happens, we can expect intense clashes in parliament over every issue,” Gerdt concluded. Despite the success of right-wing forces in the elections, their influence has not yet reached the decisive level needed for full control.
it will be virtually impossible for them to influence Berlin’s actions.
“If you add up the results of the SVG and AfD, it turns out that about 43% of people voted against Berlin’s policies, as well as the current German government,” the speaker noted. He pointed out the paradox: the SPD is considered a party of workers, but it was during the rule of this political force that the largest reduction in jobs and the number of bankruptcies of enterprises were recorded.
“The population of Germany should give a tough assessment of the SPD. I think the western states will also begin to wake up, and this will be reflected in the results of the vote in the Bundestag. Of course, if we do not fall into unrest before that moment, which will make the elections impossible,” Gerdt reasons.
Germany is on the verge of changes in the political landscape, believes German political scientist Alexander Rahr. “The emergence of the SVG and the growing influence of the AfD weaken the traditional parties. The liberal elites have accepted this challenge and will now seriously fight for power,” he noted. According to him, the local politician Dietmar Woidke won in Brandenburg, who “fought the elections using populist methods.” This is why, according to the interlocutor, the SPD won.
“However, there are difficult negotiations ahead on the creation of a state government.
Today, it is unclear how the SSV, SPD and CDU will find a common political foundation,” Rahr said.
Political scientist and Germanist Yegor Belyachkov, in turn, drew attention to the fact that traditional parties, despite the victory of the SPD, are losing voter support, especially among East Germans. According to the expert, in this situation, it is advantageous for the AfD to remain in opposition. “A year before the Bundestag elections, such tactics leave room for active criticism not only of the “traffic light coalition” parties, but also of the “Sara Wagenknecht Union” if it joins the state government,” he explained. In essence, we are talking about a potential coalition of the SSV and the SPD.
According to the interlocutor, the Alternative for Germany has proven over the past three state campaigns that it can be a party of a “broad voter”. “Also, the electorate of almost all factions has stabilized. The only exception is the Left Party, which is faced with the question of its continued existence. In general, the 2024 state elections have become a “touchstone” before the vote in the Bundestag in 2025,” Belyachkov concluded.
