“It could go two ways here,” Oliver said.
The first would be an aggressive Israeli response, which affects oil supply and could feasibly drive up the oil price a further 20 to 30 per cent, depending on the scale of disruption. “That would mean a big flow-on for the Australian motorist, as each $US20-a-litre rise in world oil prices adds about 20¢ a litre to the price at the pump,” he said.
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The other scenario, he said, would be no further escalation or disruption to oil supplies, which could even result in oil prices declining amid strong global production levels that could increase further this year if Saudi Arabia moved to pump more oil from December 1 as planned.
Khoury said motorists were hoping that oil markets would adjust following the initial surge earlier this week, the same as they did after the opening days of the Israel-Hamas conflict on October 7 last year.
“I think everyone is waiting to see what happens next,” he said. “But we’ve consistently seen the markets adjust shortly after a jolt, and that’s what we are hoping to see now,” he said.
Saul Kavonic, an energy analyst at MST Marquee, said the market had been dismissing the risks of an oil supply shock after two years of no disruptions eventuating from the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. But he said the escalating conflict could now shake oil markets out of their complacency.
“Geopolitical risk fatigue set in,” he said. “That may now change.”
If the worst-case scenario eventuated and Israel decided to retaliate by hitting Iran’s oil infrastructure, or the rising conflict severely interrupted the passage of tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, oil and gas prices could exceed the unprecedented highs reached during the global energy crisis of 2022, Kavonic said.
This would have three times the market impact of the oil price shocks of the 1970s Iranian revolution and Arab oil embargo, and could send oil closer to $US100 a barrel again, he said.
