Today’s Newspoll is devastating for Anthony Albanese, but doesn’t mean he’ll lose the next federal election. In fact I continue to predict he’ll be the winner.
While Labor’s primary vote remains in the dog house at just 31 percent, and it trails the Coalition 49-51 percent on the two-party preferred figures, that would still be enough to see Labor cling to power with an ugly victory.
I say ugly because the government would certainly lose its majority and be forced to negotiate a minority government with the support of the Greens, some Teals and/or other independents.
It would be messy, and Labor would be forced into all manner of policy compromises to stitch it together.
Perhaps that’s why the Housing Minister Clare O’Neil could not rule out changes to negative gearing and capital gains taxes by a returned Labor government when she was asked in a media interview today.
She was only willing to say such tax increases were not ‘currently’ planned, leaving plenty of wiggle room for tax hikes if they are demanded by the Greens or other crossbenchers as a condition for supporting Labor in a hung parliament.
Not that Labor has had a problem in the past saying one thing before an election only to break the promise afterwards. Ahead of the last federal election it pledged not to amend the stage three income tax cuts and not to increase superannuation taxes. Once elected it broke both those promises without a hint of shame.
Therefore anything Labor commits to support or oppose ahead of the next election needs to be taken with a grain of salt.
Hard-hat, hi-vis and handshakes: The election date may not have been announced, but Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is already very much in campaign mode.
An Instagram post with partner Jodie Haydon is all part of the PM’s bid to turn around his faltering personal popularity.
But it can still win the election with less than half of the two-party vote. John Howard won the 1998 election with just 48.9 percent of the vote, securing enough seats in the key battleground electorates to form majority government.
Labor too could squeak over the line by winning the lion’s share of marginal contests, even as its overall vote tanks elsewhere and its margins in its own safe seats are whittled away.
To do so, it would have to rely on candidates shoring up local support even in the face of an unpopular government, and leader.
In fact Labor’s two party vote could drop into the low 48 percent range, perhaps even the high 47s, before it starts to become difficult to see Labor cobbling together minority government.
That said, there are two other very concerning aspects for Labor strategists within today’s Newspoll figures: Albanese’s personal support is extremely low, and a majority of voters do not believe Labor deserves to be re-elected.
The PM’s net satisfaction rating has dropped to minus 21, with 58 percent of the public dissatisfied with his performance verses only 37 percent who are satisfied.
Similarly, only 34 percent of those polled believe Labor deserves to win the election, with 53 percent of voters polled declaring the government does not.
That means after just one term in power a majority of the electorate are looking for reasons to vote Labor out.
Coalition leader Peter Dutton appeared with his wife on 60 Minutes as he tried to soften his public image and win over female voters particularly.
Historically that is unusual; the last first-term government to be voted out was way back in 1931.
Perhaps the only barrier to changing the government now is concern about the electability of the opposition. Peter Dutton needs to keep lifting his profile and improving his image so that voters feel comfortable enough in him as a potential PM to allow them to vote against the Labor government. Last night’s 60 Minutes appearance was designed to do just that.
With Labor’s primary vote now so low, and the PM deeply unpopular, it is unlikely Albo will be around for long in the election’s aftermath, win or lose. And he’s got the waterfront holiday home ready to go if he needs it for an early retirement. He purchased the $4.3 million property last year.
After an ugly win Albo’s colleagues will see him as an untenable long-term leader, causing serious leadership instability even after a narrow victory. Especially with poor personal ratings. The contenders to take over (Tanya Plibersek, Jim Chalmers and Tony Burke) will start positioning themselves, which of itself will cause growing tensions that will distract from governing.
The similarities between the collapse in Albo’s support leading up to the next election and the decline in Scott Morrison’s satisfaction rating leading up to his 2022 election defeat are clear.
In the early days of Morrison’s management of the Covid pandemic his net satisfaction rating reached a positive 40 rating, before plummeting to nearly minus 20 closer to election day.
Albo’s honeymoon period after the 2022 victory saw his net satisfaction rating push up into the mid 30s before steadily falling all the way to minus 21 now, below the minus 20 threshold Morrison never crossed into.
In other words, Albo is now even more unpopular than Morrison was at his lowest ebb, a clear sign that the PM is an unhealthy drag on the government’s vote.
Labor can still win the election even if gets less than half the two-party preferred vote, as it can cobble together enough support from the Greens (above) and other crossbenchers.
Which explains why Daily Mail Australia has been told that Labor candidates are telling party headquarters that they would rather not receive a prime ministerial visit during the campaign. The PM is so unpopular he will detract from efforts to campaign on local issues and his presence will only remind voters of the national problems.
We saw the PM heckled at an event on the NSW south coast just last week.
Tomorrow’s interest rates decision is looming as an important moment for the government and PM to try and build some positive momentum ahead of setting the date for the next election and starting the official campaign.
The RBA is overwhelmingly expected to reduce rates by 25 basis points on Tuesday, giving mortgage holders much needed relief. Banks are also expected to quickly pass the rate cut on to consumers.
Labor will be sure to flag this as a sign its economic program is now working, despite the runaway inflation that triggered 12 consecutive rate increases before now. Steadying inflation has helped create the case for a rate cut, although economists say a deterioration in the state of the national economy is just as much of a cause.
A cut to the cash rate will give the PM and his strategists more options on the timing of the election, and when to formally declare the campaign underway.
Next week Senate estimates hearings are looming, which rarely provides good stories for governments. All it would take is a fresh scandal or new example of poor spending priorities, and any momentum from a rate cut this week could be quickly lost.
If Albo calls the election this coming weekend, Senate estimates would not go ahead, but that still appears unlikely.
WA Labor won’t want the PM to announce a date before the Western Australia state election on 8 March. WA Labor fears any overlap in election campaigns will see national issues muddy their state campaign.
While that might not be Albo’s top concern, he will need WA Labor to remain invested in his political success, as it is perhaps the only state where the Labor vote appears to be holding up. At the 2022 election Albo launched his campaign in the west and won a swag of seats, enough to narrowly form majority government.
Tanya Plibersek and Tony Burke are regarded as two of the leading candidates to replace Mr Albanese as ALP leader, with insiders tipping a change even if Labor hangs onto government.
The PM can call the election date the day after the WA state election, on Sunday 9 March, if he wants to go to the polls no earlier than April 12.
That would also avoid the need to hand the federal budget down in late March which would suit Albanese and Treasurer Jim Chalmers, given the accumulating debts and a looming deficit.
But an election on 12 April would overlap with the Jewish religious Passover, as well as school holidays in Victoria.
After all the anti-semitic attacks – arguably stoked by government decision making – the PM may not want to risk offending the Jewish community with a Passover election.
And Victorians have already indicated their displeasure with the Labor brand at recent state by-elections. Holding the federal election during Victoria’s school holidays might only add to Labor’s unpopularity in the southern state.
The following weekend is Easter, so there won’t be an election then.
To be sure, no election date can avoid all clashes. The PM’s top priority will be trying to improve the fortunes of the government – as well as lift his personal ratings – before having to face the judgement of the people.
That may not be possible if the current circumstances persist, but Labor can still win anyway. It just won’t be pretty, unless something dramatically changes between now and polling day.
