Americans are expected to consume 70 trillion fewer calories in the next six years thanks to the meteoric rise of weight loss drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy.
By the end of 2030, the average US adult is expected to consume 100 to 800 fewer calories per year, resulting in a cumulative annual reduction of approximately 10 trillion to 68 trillion calories across the adult population by 2030.
The report, compiled by Impact Analytics, attributed the massive caloric decline to the advent of drugs like Ozempic, Wegovy, and Mounjaro, which tamp down hunger and cravings, leading a massive cut in people’s food intake.
These drugs, originally intended to manage diabetes, mimic the actions of hormones that signal to the brain you’re full, reducing the number of calories a person can eat and resulting in weight loss.
In response to the rapid increase in the number of adults currently on one of these drugs – estimated to be around 18 million people and rising – health food and produce sales are on the rise, while junk and fast food sales are falling.
An estimated six percent of American adults – around 18 million – currently take a medication that mimics that hormone that tells the brain you’re full. Those drugs include Ozempic, Wegovy, Zepbound, and Mounjaro
Since hitting the market in 2017, Ozempic has become one of the most sought-after prescriptions in the US, despite shortages. It is often used as ‘off label’ to treat obesity.
The similar medication Wegovy is a higher dose of Ozempic and, rather than first being approved to treat diabetes, it was approved as a weight loss medication in June 2021.
IN 2022, Eli Lilly debuted similar drugs called Mounjaro and Zepbound that help people drop pounds.
The advent of new medicines is expected to make a dent in the 42 percent of Americans who are obese.
An estimated 12 percent of American adults have tried one of these medications since their inception, and around six percent currently take them in the hope of losing up to 15 percent of their body weight.
With the activated hormones that signal fullness, people on the drugs take in far less food than they would without them, leading to smaller portion sizes and less snacking.
The health and wellness industries, valued in the trillions, have flourished during this time as many Americans eagerly embrace healthier lifestyle choices.
In 2024, the average calorie intake is projected to be around 3,600 calories per person per day, a notable increase from the 2,800 calories recorded in the 1960. Forecasts suggest it could decrease to 2,800 calories by 2030.
By 2030, there could be a significant reduction in calorie intake across the entire adult population thanks to the explosive popularity of weight loss medications
But experts project fast food and junk food companies will see declines in sales and profits, and food manufacturers are increasingly concerned about the rise of weight loss drugs’ impact on their bottom line.
According to the report, sales in healthy food categories such as fresh and frozen vegetables have increased around five to nine percent annually from 2022 to 2024.
The Impact Analytics report notes the declining consumption of sugary drinks, increased mindful eating, a surge of fitness and nutrition app usage, and social media’s strong influence on promoting healthy eating trends.
There has also been a wave of enthusiasm for wellness, with consumers more educated than ever about the various health risks of eating too much ultra-processed food as well as a growing number of private labels with low-calorie and plant-based offerings.
Demand for fresh produce is up, with a 12.4 percent increase in fresh fruit sales and a 9.2 percent increase in vegetables.
A survey conducted by Morgan Stanley found 73 percent of people ate less confectionary foods, which includes sugary candy, chocolate and some baked goods
Because of the massive shift in food consumption, the authors predict grocery stores will have to adjust by increasing regular supplies of health foods and allowing for more shelf space for healthy foods.
Impact Analytics CEO Prashant Agrawal told USA TODAY: ‘We’re moving from the sugary foods, processed foods to more healthy foods.
‘GLP is a cause of it. There’s also the fact that people are more worried about ultra-processed foods.’
The report’s authors said: ‘As more people adopt healthier eating habits and use GLP-1 drugs, demand for high-calorie, processed foods is expected to decrease significantly by 2030.
‘Sugary snacks, carbonated soft drinks, fast food, frozen meals, Consumer Behavior: and other high-calorie, low-nutrition products are likely to see declining sales.’
The investment bank Morgan Stanley predicted the number of people drinking sodas and alcohol and eating salty snacks will fall four percent by 2035, forcing manufacturers to either reformulate or risk being squeezed out of the market.
Major players in the fast food industry, such as McDonald’s, Burger King and Yum Brands, which owns KFC and Taco Bell, could see falling demand
Last year, the CEO of global snacking company Kellanova, which owns brands like Cheez-It, Pringles, and Rice Krispies Treats, told Bloomberg: ‘Like everything that potentially impacts our business, we’ll look at it, study it, and, if necessary, mitigate.’
One day later, investment firm Barclays predicted the impact that the advent of the drugs would have on companies including Pepsi Co., which makes sodas, Cheetos and Doritos, McDonald’s Corp., and Altria Group Inc., the cigarette maker.
The firm suggested these companies buy insurance to protect themselves against potential financial losses, with strategists saying: ‘The impacts of GLP-1s potentially introduce disruption into a number of industries.’
