Oscars Nomination Analysis: Musicals, Popes, ‘Brutalist’, Netflix, Demi And Dylan, Sex Workers, And Trump Make Big Noise

In my Oscar predictions piece yesterday I warned about the possibility that this year’s list could be even more international than in recent years, partly because of the L.A. Fires which moved the Academy to extend the voting period twice and by nearly a week overall.It was indicative that voters in Los Angeles, where a lot of them live, might have been preoccupied. This said to me that the ever-growing international base of Oscar voters, not affected by the fires, might have more influence than ever. There is no question that happened.

Let’s start with Best Picture. Previoiusly since Z in 1969 there have been 11 films simultaneously nominated for Best International Feature (formerly known as Best Foreign Language Film) and Best Picture. This year for the first time there were two films, France’s Spanish language Emilia Perez and Brazil’s highly political I’m Still Here, the latter becoming the biggest Best Picture surprise of the morning. 2019‘s South Korean Parasite remains the only film to win Best Picture and International Film, however all the previous examples did go on to win International. This will be the first year that changes as we have two of them. By the way last year we also had two international films in the Best Picture race, The Zone Of Interest and Anatomy Of A Fall, but France failed to submit the latter as their international entry. Plus four of the Best Picture nominees were directed by foreign filmmakers (France’s Jacques Audiard and Coralie Fargeat, Canada’s Denis Villeneuve, and Brazil’s Walter Salles). Plus the uber-competitive Best Actress race has two non-Americans with Spain’s Karla Sofia Gascon (Emilia Perez) becoming the first trans performer ever nominated, and Brazil’s Golden Globe winner Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here).

And then there is Cannes. The iconic film festival taking place way back in May had an exceptional showing this year with no less than a whopping 31 nominations for 8 films that debuted in the South Of France, sometimes thought of as an unwise Oscar strategy since playing that far in advance can lead to other films at the fall festivals getting more attention, but with many Cannes titles getting their North American premieres at those fall fests that is becoming a moot point. Cannes has three of this year’s Best Picture nominees (Palme d’Or winner Anora , Emilia Perez, The Substance).

And while we are on the subject of Emilia Perez, landing Netflix a record – for them – 13 nominations, the musical is in rarefied air at the Oscars and represents the streamer’s real first best chance to finally take Best Picture after Apple became the first with CODA. It is also the first time since winner Oliver and Funny Girl in 1968 and winner My Fair Lady and Mary Poppins in 1964 saw two musicals face off against each other in the Best Picture race. Throw in the Bob Dylan musical biopic A Complete Unknown and you have three.

Looking over the nominations the only really surprising thing is how surprising they aren’t. Sure there are the usual snubs, particularly in the overcrowded Best Actress field, and as usual foreign directors taking spots away from those whose movies otherwise racked up numerous nominations and Best Picture nods. Starting with Conclave’s Edward Berger who I thought was a lock for his otherwise 8-times nominated papal drama, what does this exceptional filmmaker have to do to impress the AMPAS director’s branch who are the ones voting for nomiations. after two years ago similarly being overlooked for his multi-nominated Best Picture contender All Quiet On The Western Front? Shameful, and as he is not a producer or writer this time, he’s locked out. The same goes for the sensational 10-times nominated Best Picture contender Wicked, which saw its director Jon M. Chu ignored. At least he has a shot next year for Wicked Part 2. I think it is high time the Academy looked at the annual snub fest in this category. As people always say, ‘do you think five of these 10 Best Picture nominees directed themselves‘?

Overall today’s list is mostly as I thought it might be. I mean did you really expect Diane Warren would have no chance for her 16th(!) and 8th(!) consecutive Best Song nomination (another of Netflix’s 16 overall leading total) for “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight?

The exceptional showing with 10 nominations for The Brutalist including Best Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, and three acting among other nominations, perhaps could set up a weird kind of rerun of 2002 when another holocaust-oriented movie, The Pianist in which Adrien Brody won an Oscar as a Holocaust survivor. took also directing and screenplay before losing in the end to the last musical, Chicago, to win Best Picture. Could that unique scenario repeat itself for Brady Corbets three and a half hour epic against either Emilia Perez or Wicked? If it is to be the latter without directing and screenplay nominations, you would have to go back to 1930’s Grand Hotel which won on its only nomination for Best Picture.

As for Emilia Perez’s 13 nominations today, yes it is a record for a foreign language film as headlines are blasting, but it joins a list of other movies that have received 13 nominations including last year’s Oppenheimer, The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button, Gone With The Wind, Forrest Gump, Mary Poppins, Who’s Afraid Of Virginia Woolf?, The Shape Of Water, From Here To Eternity, Chicago, and Shakespeare In Love. Of that list every one of them won Best Picture eventually except Benjamin Button, Mary Poppins, Virginia Woolf. La La Land with 14 nominations is the only film to ever lose Best Picture with that many nominations.

Despite the overwhelming showing for Emilia Perez with its 13 nominations, and its newly minted front runner status, with the Academy’s preferential balloting process in which voters rank their favorites starting with 1 and going to 10, surprises are possible such as when Moonlight triumped over La La Land. And Conclave which led the BAFTA nominations with 12 can take heart in the fact of two recent Best Picture winners, Green Book and CODA that did that feat without a directing nomination (each won Best Picture with also Screenplay and Supporting Actor awards).

Perhaps the most pleasant surprise of the morning came with the Supporting Actor nomination for Jeremy Strong as Trump’s evil mentor Roy Cohn in The Apprentice (setting up a showdown with his Succession co-star Kieran Culkin also in the category), and then again for Sebastian Stan’s Best Actor nomination as the younger Donald Trump in The Apprentice. Coming just three days after watching him sworn in for a second term on Monday, this is a sweet moment that no doubt Trump himself, who claims not to have seen this smart origin story of the 45th and now 47th president (an occurrence director Ali Abbasi could not have predicted when he set out to make this film, which is exceptionally fair and accurate, even sometimes empathetic to Trump). Considering after its Cannes premiere no one in Hollywood wanted to release this until finally Tom Ortenberg’s Briarcliff took a chance and now has two Oscar nominations for their efforts, the Academy actor’s branch should take a bow, especially since Stan was competing against himself for his Golden Globe winning A Different Man making it doubly difficult to amass the votes needed for his Apprentice performance . When I interviewed Stan not too long ago he mentioned Variety was unable to even find an actor to talk to him for their Actors On Actors series due to the Trump factor. Maybe an Oscar nomination for the actor playing him will finally get Trump to see the film. How can he resist? And as last year when he crashed the Oscars with a “review” at the end of the show read by host Jimmy Kimmel, will he be tempted even more so to do that again?

Stay tuned.

The 97th Academy Awards are March 2, 2025 on ABC and HULU.