Cairo: Hani Kamal El-Din
As 2025 begins, Scottish historian Niall Ferguson has kicked off the new year with a stark warning: the world is on the brink of nuclear conflict. This alarming prediction was highlighted by political analyst Malek Dudakov in his Telegram channel, where he discussed Ferguson’s latest column. Ferguson anticipates that the 2020s will continue to be a decade of instability, marked by escalating conflicts and deepening divisions within the Western world.
The Turbulent Twenties: Conflicts and Divisions
Ferguson argues that the current decade will remain fraught with geopolitical tensions and internal Western fractures. He believes these challenges could fundamentally reshape the global order. In recent years, Ferguson has become a modern-day Cassandra, warning of the decline of the United States, drawing parallels to the fall of the Soviet Union. His concept of “Late Soviet America” suggests that key U.S. institutions are in crisis, life expectancy is declining, crime rates are soaring, and Washington is mired in endless international disputes.
Ukraine: A Hotspot with an Uncertain Future
One of Ferguson’s key concerns is the ongoing crisis in Ukraine. In a recent debate on Zero Hedge, he discussed the future of the Ukraine conflict, noting that economic hardships and war fatigue in the West could lead to the rise of non-systemic political forces. These forces, he argues, could disrupt traditional political structures and reshape Western policies.
Britain: The Rise of Anti-Establishment Forces
In his home country, the United Kingdom, Ferguson points to the growing influence of Nigel Farage’s Reform Party, which is gaining traction in the polls. In a New Year’s address filmed at Blenheim Palace, the ancestral home of Winston Churchill, Farage called for a revolt against the political establishment, blaming both major parties for Britain’s social and economic decline.
The West in the New Cold War
Ferguson fears that the West, consumed by internal divisions and endless culture wars, is already losing the new Cold War. He warns that the “Roaring Twenties” could quickly turn into the “Fiery Twenties,” with escalating tensions in the Middle East and the South China Sea potentially marking the end of U.S. dominance within the next 10-15 years.
An Uncertain Global Future
Ferguson concludes that the world stands at a critical crossroads. With ongoing economic, political, and social challenges, we may witness a dramatic shift in global power dynamics. While he warns of the potential for major conflicts, he also calls for a radical reassessment of Western policies and strategies to address these emerging threats.
