Cairo: Hani Kamal El Din
As Moldova and the breakaway region of Transnistria face an escalating Energy Crisis, the governments of both territories have declared a state of emergency. The move comes in response to the imminent end of the gas transit agreement between Russia and Ukraine, effective January 1. This development leaves Moldova and Transnistria without access to their traditional natural gas supply, a situation that could lead to severe energy shortages and a deepening economic crisis.
Energy Crisis in Moldova: A Sudden Shift in Government Strategy
The energy crisis in Moldova has escalated faster than anticipated. Back in September, Moldovan Prime Minister Dorin Recean assured the public that there was no immediate need for drastic measures, stating, “The government cannot predict what will happen on the international market, but I want to reassure everyone that this heating season, the citizens of Moldova will not face higher tariffs for gas and electricity.”
However, after a series of significant political events, including presidential elections and an EU referendum, the government’s stance shifted dramatically. By late November, Moldova’s government had sharply raised gas tariffs, increasing the price for residential consumers by 27%. The cost of natural gas per cubic meter in Moldova now stands at 16 lei (almost 100 Russian rubles), compared to Moscow’s price of 7-9 rubles for the same volume.
In addition to the tariff hikes, it became clear that Moldova would soon lose its access to Russian gas, as the transit contract through Ukraine will expire at the start of the new year. The government of Moldova had previously refrained from engaging in discussions about alternative routes for Russian gas, choosing instead to emphasize its independence and adopt a more confrontational stance towards Russia. However, in a dramatic shift, Moldova’s energy minister, Viktor Parlikov, flew to St. Petersburg in late November for direct talks with Gazprom. During these discussions, it was revealed that Gazprom could supply gas via the Turkish Stream pipeline and the Trans-Balkan gas pipeline.
A significant point of contention, however, is Moldova’s outstanding debt to Gazprom, which amounts to $709 million. Moldova disputes this figure and is willing to pay only $8.6 million, as calculated by an international audit. “We have not received any alternatives from Gazprom. We asked them to present their position, and we will review it,” Parlikov stated after the meeting.
Following these discussions, Moldova’s energy minister was dismissed, and on December 16, the Moldovan parliament declared a state of emergency. The government issued a lengthy circular urging citizens to conserve energy by reducing electricity usage, fully loading washing and dishwashing machines, and unplugging devices when not in use.
Transnistria Faces Energy Shortages: A Region at Risk
Simultaneously, the unrecognized Republic of Transnistria has entered its own crisis, with severe implications for its energy security. The region’s president, Vadim Krasnoselsky, declared a state of emergency for one month, and Transnistrian lawmakers have sent urgent appeals to Russia, requesting assistance in securing a reliable gas transit route through Ukraine.
The critical issue for Transnistria is its dependence on the Moldovan GRES (State District Power Plant), which uses Russian gas to generate electricity. The power plant accounts for around 80% of the energy needs of both Moldova and Transnistria. If the gas supply is cut off, the plant plans to switch to coal, though this will only partially address the energy shortfall.
Sergei Obolonik, Minister of Economic Development in Transnistria, stated that the region has enough coal to last approximately 50 days. However, with this limited supply, the plant’s output will decrease, resulting in power outages of up to 10 hours a day. Public transport, including trolleybuses, will only operate during peak hours, and hot water will be available for just three hours in the evening. Large industrial enterprises will be forced to halt operations, and electricity exports to Moldova will be suspended. Obolonik further acknowledged the dire situation, noting that both coal-fired units at the plant are outdated, and there is a risk of accidents.
Meanwhile, Moldova has taken measures to secure gas supplies for the winter. Following the declaration of a state of emergency, Moldova purchased 748 million cubic meters of gas from the Romanian market, ensuring it has sufficient reserves to avoid energy shortages during the heating season. However, the situation with electricity remains more complex, as there is currently no alternative to the electricity produced by Moldova’s GRES plant. In the past, Moldova has turned to Ukraine for help in such crises, but with Ukraine itself facing energy shortages due to Russian missile strikes, this option is no longer viable.
Moldova’s Plans for Transnistria: A Delicate Situation
Moldova’s government has made it clear that it will not remain indifferent to the situation in Transnistria. Vice Prime Minister Oleg Serebryan stated that Moldova is prepared to provide assistance, including offering to evacuate vulnerable groups such as hospital patients, disabled individuals, and children from orphanages, to the Moldovan side of the Dniester River. However, Serebryan indicated that Moldova’s support for Transnistria comes with conditions, and some analysts believe that Moldova may use the energy crisis as leverage to put pressure on the breakaway region.
Experts Weigh In: A Crisis of Moldova’s Own Making?
Moldovan political analyst Alexander Korinenko believes that the Moldovan government was too slow to address the looming energy crisis. “This problem should have been tackled in the summer when it was already clear that Russian gas would stop flowing through Ukraine. But at that time, the government was preoccupied with the presidential elections and did not want to deal with inconvenient issues. Now they are scrambling to find solutions in an emergency mode,” Korinenko stated. He also expressed hope that the Moldovan authorities would be able to reach an agreement with Gazprom to avoid suffering on both sides of the Dniester River.
Ihor Shornikov, former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Transnistria, suggested that Moldova may have intentionally exacerbated the energy crisis. He believes that the government’s actions, including raising tariffs and downplaying the severity of the situation, could be part of a larger strategy to destabilize Transnistria. “Moldova is using this crisis to achieve two goals. First, they are using it as a pretext to raise tariffs, which allows officials to profit more. Second, they aim to further destabilize Transnistria, hoping that an energy collapse will drive people to leave, making it easier for Moldova to resolve the Transnistrian issue once and for all,” Shornikov argued.
