The Middle East is holding its breath waiting for a possible response from Iran and Hamas, after the strikes attributed to Israel that killed Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. The question of what comes next is beginning to arise: who will be the new head of Hamas’ political bureau? This is not the first time that targeted assassinations have targeted the leaders of the Islamist movement, which has often replaced them fairly quickly. According to analysts, the movement has resources, relies on institutions, and the absence of key figures like Ismail Haniyeh does not mean its end.
Hamas’s next political leader will likely be someone based outside the occupied West Bank or Gaza Strip, partly because the job requires frequent travel. Ismail Haniyeh left Gaza in 2019, shortly after being elected head of Hamas’s political bureau, moving to Doha. Three names are now starting to emerge. In the coming months, a vote is expected to confirm the provisional mandate of one of these three contenders, or renew the leadership.
Khaled Meshaal was one of the first names mentioned after Ismail Haniyeh’s death to replace him. Currently in Doha, he has lived in exile since 1967 (Jordan, Syria, and other countries). Former leader of the political branch of Hamas, Haniyeh’s predecessor, he was propelled to the head of the movement after Israel eliminated the founder of the Islamist movement, Ahmed Yassin, then his successor in the Palestinian territories, Abdelaziz Al-Rantissi. Khaled Meshaal himself survived an assassination attempt in 1997 in Amman by agents of Mossad, the Israeli intelligence service. He is almost unanimous within Hamas, at least more than all the others. Much less close to Iran, after having criticized the regime of its Syrian ally, he could change Hamas’ policy, both externally and internally.
Deputy head of Hamas’ regional political bureau in Gaza, Khalil al-Haya is known to be close to Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas leader in Gaza, accused by Israel of being one of the masterminds of the October 7 attack. In 2006, Khalil al-Haya led Hamas’ parliamentary bloc, which had just emerged victorious from legislative elections that degenerated into armed clashes with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas’ Fatah movement. A fervent supporter of armed struggle, he lost several members of his family during Israeli military operations, notably in 2007, on his house in the northern Gaza Strip. And he himself has already survived an assassination attempt.
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