His election came just 2½ weeks before a January 26 deadline for Israeli forces to withdraw from southern Lebanon, a longtime Hezbollah stronghold. The US-backed ceasefire ended months of fighting, starting with an initial 60-day truce, during which Israel and Hezbollah agreed to pull out of the south.
A resident looks through her belongings in her apartment destroyed by an Israeli airstrike in Beirut in November.Credit: Daniel Berehulak/The New York Times
Under the agreement, the Lebanese military should then deploy to the area to head off a security vacuum and prevent Hezbollah from rearming. In his inaugural address, Aoun made a veiled reference to Hezbollah and its arsenal, saying that he would work to ensure the state’s right to monopolise the bearing of arms, a line that also drew applause from MPs.
Aoun will not only have to manage the delicate relationship with Hezbollah, as well as the implementation of the ceasefire, but also form a new government that can tackle postwar reconstruction. He pledged to rebuild parts of southern Lebanon and the southern suburbs of Beirut, which Israel targeted heavily during the war.
The World Bank said in a preliminary report in November that the conflict cost Lebanon an estimated $US8.5 billion ($13.7 billion) in physical damage and economic losses. But any effort to rebuild will be hampered by Lebanon’s deep economic crisis, a five-year collapse that began with a liquidity crisis at Lebanese banks. Since then, the country’s gross domestic product has shrunk by more than a third. Aoun also vowed to revive the country’s banking sector.
The military commander, who joined the army as a cadet in 1983, was credited with keeping the army intact throughout the financial crisis. When the Lebanese pound lost most of its value against the dollar and local salaries became worthless, soldiers were allowed to moonlight while off-duty.
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He was chosen to lead the armed forces in 2017.
For the international community, Aoun’s election signals Lebanon’s willingness to carry out the political changes necessary to unlock desperately needed support from foreign donors.
“On several occasions, extreme dysfunction has pushed Lebanon’s leaders to finally take political decisions,” said David Wood, senior Lebanon analyst at the International Crisis Group.
“In this case, while Lebanese elites put off electing a president despite the disastrous economic crisis, the added pressures of the fragile ceasefire agreement and postwar reconstruction proved too much for them to ignore,” he said.
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But while Aoun signalled that he would challenge Hezbollah as a military force, his victory would not have been possible without votes from the group’s parliamentarians. In the first round of voting, Hezbollah and its allies cast blank ballots, preventing Aoun from attaining the more than 86 votes needed to win.
The move was seen as a power play by Hezbollah, which, along with the Amal Movement, form the bulk of the Shiite Muslim vote in the chamber. After the first failed vote, parliament speaker Nabih Berri, who leads Amal, adjourned parliament for two hours for consultations.
During this time, Aoun met with Hezbollah and Amal MPs, according to an official close to Berri who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive information. The official said the meeting was positive and that the two parties asked Aoun whether he could guarantee them cabinet positions and provide assurances regarding reconstruction in areas where they hold sway.
Hezbollah and Amal agreed to vote for Aoun in the next round.
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For now, the two parties will probably control the Shiite seats in the new cabinet, giving Hezbollah “an enduring say in Lebanon’s political affairs,” Wood said.
As for the group’s arsenal, he added, “the state cannot realistically assert a monopoly over weapons in Lebanon without Hezbollah’s cooperation”.
The Washington Post
