Jim Chalmers’ ‘skeletons in the closet’ start rattling again – my Labor insider reveals what everyone’s talking about… plus the truth about Credlin’s Dutton interview

Whoever wins, Albo loses 

Unless Anthony Albanese can pull off a miraculous turnaround between now and election day, even if he wins the election, he loses.

That’s the assessment of one of Labor’s most senior players in Canberra.

The Albanese government cabinet minister admits the PM’s head will soon be on the chopping block if Labor is victorious but loses its majority.

‘If we lose seats and become a minority government, I don’t see how he stays,’ said the senior party figure.

Labor currently holds 77 of the 150 seats being contested at the next election. If it loses just two seats, it loses its majority.

When I put to the minister that Treasurer Jim Chalmers would be the obvious replacement for Albo, they strongly disagreed.

‘He’s got too many skeletons in his closet.’

I have something of an idea what they might be referring to. As readers of this column will know, any mention of Chalmers among Labor insiders often comes with a wink and a nudge.

That’s because he admitted, seemingly out of the blue, to ‘drinking too much’ in a Good Weekend profile back in 2023 that also alluded to gossip he was ‘cutting a bit loose socially’ around Parliament House.

The rumour at the time was the interview was Chalmers’ attempt to get ahead of some looming bad press that never transpired. But still, if he were to become PM…

Anyway, back to what I was saying about Labor’s leadership.

The alternative contenders cited were Tanya Plibersek and Tony Burke, who is currently the industrial relations minister and Leader of the House of Representatives.

The fact I even feel obliged to remind readers of Burke’s title is his first problem. Name recognition in mainstream Australia is a difficulty for Burke, unlike Plibersek.

Despite the scuttlebutt from the Good Weekend piece, it seemed odd to me that Chalmers wouldn’t be regarded as the natural successor, given his profile as Treasurer and polished appearances in the media.

But the senior Labor figure points out that Chalmers doesn’t have much factional support and there are few Labor MPs from his home state of Queensland to lend their support if it goes to a vote.

‘For Tanya [Plibersek] to get it, a deal would need to be done with the right’, the minister argues. 

‘Tony [Burke] would need to find a way to unite the right behind him. He could become Albo’s candidate if [Albanese] realises he can’t hang on and just wants to stop Tanya getting the job.’

The animosity between Albo and Plibersek is well-known in Labor circles. He pushed her out of contention to become Labor leader after the 2019 defeat when she was Bill Shorten’s deputy. Then, after winning the 2022 election, Albo used his newfound authority to demote Plibersek from her favoured education portfolio.

Because Albo and Plibersek are both in the factional left of the Labor Party, she couldn’t even get to the starters gate as a contender without right-wing support. Albo, despite his woeful personal polling numbers in recent times, has strong support within his own parliamentary faction.

‘Tanya would win the membership vote hands down,’ my Labor source claims. 

‘Burke reckons he can win more votes amongst MPs.’

Under Labor’s voting rules, the party membership gets 50 per cent of the say in a popular postal ballot, and the parliamentary team of MPs and Senators count for the other half.

The two results are added together to determine the winner.

The last – and only – time there was such a showdown was back in 2013 after Kevin Rudd lost government. Shorten narrowly defeated Albo to become the Labor opposition leader with marginally more than 60 per cent support among MPs but only 40 per cent support amongst party members.

If a similar vote occurs after the next election, it will be the first time the new rules for electing a Labor leader have been used in government.

The process is long and drawn-out, which might work in Albo’s favour if he chooses to stare down his opponents. The chaos of a drawn-out contest would debilitate the government and the country – and nobody wants that.

‘The membership wouldn’t be behind Albo the way they used to be,’ the minister argues, citing lost support courtesy of government decision-making over the last two and a half years.

That might be true, but it would be a bold move for any senior Labor minister to challenge Albo for the top job in the aftermath of winning an election, even if it was an ugly victory and Labor lost its majority.

It could also cause problems on the crossbench. Labor MPs would need to be confident they could switch leaders without the act of doing so triggering an unwanted early election.

There is a lot of water to go under the bridge between now and the next election. Time, perhaps, for Albo to reassert himself as a more popular leader. However, all the current indications are that even in victory, Labor will lose its majority, meaning that if the minister I spoke to is right, the win would be a pyrrhic one for Albo, leading to his imminent demise.

Dutton’s advisors hide in plain sight 

Sky News political commentator Peta Credlin interviewed opposition leader Peter Dutton during the week, in a long-form sit-down chat that generated a few headlines.

I’ve heard that Credlin provides Dutton with regular free advice as he tries to make history and defeat a one-term government for the first time since 1931.

There were media reports about this unpaid advisory relationship late last year, but as the election has drawn closer, the regularity of their chats has increased.

While plenty of commentators no doubt see themselves as doyens of what political strategies work and don’t, Credlin has credentials that make her political observations worth listening to.

Having been Tony Abbott’s chief of staff in opposition and in government, she’s got experience beyond the cheap seats.

Whatever anyone thinks about the job Credlin and Abbott did in government – it was a short and wild ride that ended in ignominy – there is no doubt that in opposition they were a dynamic duo.

I would go as a far as to say they were the best opposition duo in modern political history, if the yardstick for success is winning government.

They managed to turn around a big election defeat in 2007 against a popular new PM in just two terms. Almost winning in 2010 before a thumping victory in 2013.

We also hear that Dutton gets plenty of free advice from Abbott, who knows a thing or two about winning despite being written off as too unpopular to even become PM.

All of which is fair enough, and evidence that Dutton recognises the value of listening to those around him to succeed. But if he does pull off a miracle win in a few months’ time, the person whose advice he will really need is John Howard… the last successful (and long-term) prime minister Australia has had from either side of the partisan aisle.

It was on Howard’s watch that Dutton first entered politics, at the 2001 election. Howard even gave Dutton his start in the ministry after the 2004 election.

And I can let readers in on this little fact: even way back then, when few saw Dutton as a leader of the future, Howard privately thought the ex-Queensland cop might have what it takes.

Airbus Albo is back! 

The PM missed the final sitting day of the week on Thursday to jet to Townsville to visit flood-affected areas in North Queensland. An understandable absence, most would agree.

The day after that, he had events in Alice Springs to end the working week, having arrived in the red centre very late on Thursday evening.

But what did Albo do between finishing up around lunchtime in Townsville and flying into Alice Springs around midnight?

Whatever it was happened in Brisbane – because the log for the prime ministerial jet has it arriving in Brisbane just before 3pm on Thursday, and not leaving until after 9pm that night.

Albo didn’t grab an afternoon nap. Peter Fegan, of radio station 4BC, learned the PM had flown into Brisbane to be the headline act at a high-priced corporate fundraiser hosted by one of the city’s big law firms.

Not concerned about facts getting in the way of their spin, when the PM’s office was asked why Albo had to fly to Brisbane between his Townsville and Alice Springs duties, they claimed he was dropping the Queensland premier back home.

As generous as a private jet ride back to Brisvegas might have been, it didn’t happen. David Crisafulli, in fact, stayed up north.

Do we care that Albo used his taxpayer-funded jet to attend a Labor fundraiser? Is the cover-up worse than the ‘crime’? Or doesn’t it matter because, let’s face it, both major parties probably do it all the time?

Usually politicians find wafer-thin excuses to justify their travel as being work-related, and just happen to attend fundraisers or personal events while in town.

It’s usually not a chicken-or-the-egg discussion. We know which arrangement comes first.

Maybe Albo had his own wafer-thin work-related excuse for a Brisbane flyby to allow him to raise corporate cash for the Labor Party while he was in town on this occasion and we just haven’t pieced together what it was.

Either way, it must be nice to have a private jet to make the task a little more comfortable when juggling events.