Cairo: Hani Kamal El Din
In a strategic shift, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have significantly advanced their presence beyond the neutral zone, an area spanning 235 square kilometers. This development follows the implementation of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah, which has now been in effect for 30 days. While the ceasefire agreement stipulated that Israeli forces should withdraw from southern Lebanon within 60 days, Israel is now considering extending its stay, contingent upon the Lebanese Armed Forces’ (LAF) failure to completely displace Hezbollah from its positions in the south.
Sources from Haaretz reported that the IDF may extend its stay beyond the initially agreed two-month deadline if the Lebanese government in Beirut does not meet its obligations to regain control over the southern regions and expel Hezbollah from these areas. Hezbollah, a Shiite militia that has historically exerted considerable power in Lebanon, continues to challenge the Lebanese government’s authority in certain regions, making the situation delicate.
The IDF has made it clear that it could use this prolonged military presence as leverage to pressure Lebanese authorities into fulfilling their commitments. As of December 27, the official one-month anniversary of the ceasefire, the IDF has already had to engage in military actions. The Israeli Defense Forces’ spokesperson announced the destruction of 44 Hezbollah militants, who were accused of violating the “quiet zone” agreed upon in the ceasefire. These militants had reportedly been operating within the de facto “sterile” zone, which was meant to remain free of military activity.
Further military escalations were observed when, on the night of December 25, Israeli air forces launched their first attack on targets in the Bekaa Valley, an eastern region of Lebanon. These airstrikes targeted weapons depots believed to belong to Hezbollah, marking a significant shift in Israel’s military operations in the region.
Currently, Israel maintains its presence in various Lebanese villages near the border. These villages remain off-limits to residents, who have yet to be permitted to return to their homes. The IDF’s engineering units have begun constructing infrastructure for military outposts along Israel’s northern borders. Some of these outposts will be situated behind border fences but will not cross the United Nations-designated “Blue Line” separating the two countries. However, certain areas that are considered particularly vulnerable may see the establishment of military posts that could be deemed controversial in terms of international law.
The IDF leadership believes that Hezbollah, along with its international affiliates, is currently not in a position to launch major offensives against Israel. According to Israeli assessments, the operation dubbed “Northern Arrows” resulted in the destruction of around 70% of Hezbollah’s strategic weaponry, including long-range missiles, anti-aircraft missiles, and anti-ship missiles. Additionally, approximately 75% of Hezbollah’s short-range missile installations were reportedly neutralized during the operation.
Meanwhile, Israel is deliberating over its strategy in the Gaza Strip. Security officials are concerned that if a prisoner exchange agreement with Hamas, related to the hostages taken during the “Black Saturday” of October 7, 2023, is not reached soon, a reassessment of military operations in Gaza will be necessary. Sources from Haaretz within the Israeli Ministry of Defense state that ongoing operations in Gaza are aimed at pressuring Hamas into securing a comprehensive agreement.
If Israel and Hamas fail to finalize a hostage release agreement soon, it may prompt an escalation of military actions within the Gaza Strip. Israeli officials acknowledge that the longer the fighting continues, the more it undermines the “values of the IDF” and disrupts traditional combat rules that have long guided the Israeli military. Discussions regarding these concerns have taken place with senior military commanders.
The diminishing influence of Iran’s regional footholds, particularly in Lebanon and Gaza, has also contributed to the collapse of Tehran’s security infrastructure in Syria. Israeli airstrikes have taken advantage of the shift in Syrian political control, targeting and destroying significant portions of weapons arsenals previously held by the Assad regime. Israel now feels less constrained in its operations within Syrian territory, despite repeated warnings from its Middle Eastern neighbors.
Israeli forces have now moved well beyond the neutral zone in Syria, advancing into the Quneitra region in the southern part of the country. According to Kurdish media outlet North Press, Israeli troops have imposed a curfew in the area and used loudspeakers to urge locals to surrender any weapons they may possess. This marks the latest in a series of Israeli ground incursions into Syria since December 8, when a coalition of Islamist forces took control of Damascus.
