Cairo: Hani Kamal El-Din
According to a schedule presented by U.S. President Joe Biden, a ceasefire between the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and the Lebanese Hezbollah movement (“Party of God”) came into effect on Wednesday morning after both sides agreed to a truce.
Speaking on the evening of November 26 in the White House Rose Garden, Biden stated that the deal was intended to be a “permanent cessation of hostilities.” He also mentioned his conversations with Israeli and Lebanese leaders, and that both countries had accepted the U.S. proposal to “end the destructive conflict.”
Israel’s Security Cabinet voted the day before to approve the deal with a majority of 10 votes to 1, according to a statement from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office, which thanked the United States for its active role in brokering the agreement.
The 60-day ceasefire aims to implement United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701, hoping it will serve as a foundation for a durable peace. This resolution was initially adopted to end the 34-day war between Israel and Lebanon in 2006, and it had helped maintain relative calm along their border for nearly two decades. This stability lasted until October 7, 2023, when a war broke out between Israel and Palestinian Hamas militants. Since then, Hezbollah has launched missile and artillery strikes towards Israel in solidarity with the Palestinians, initiating border skirmishes that have lasted for over a year.
This fall, the conflict escalated dramatically following Israeli airstrikes in Beirut that effectively decapitated Hezbollah—its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, was killed on September 27. On the night of October 1, the IDF launched a ground invasion of Lebanon, initiating a military operation against Israel’s main northern border adversary.
Resolution 1701 called for Israel to withdraw all its troops from southern Lebanon, with only Lebanese military forces and United Nations peacekeepers (UNIFIL) to remain south of the Litani River, approximately 30 km north of the Israeli-Lebanese border. Although Israeli forces will not immediately withdraw once the agreement takes effect, they must do so within 60 days. During this period, Hezbollah forces are expected to retreat around 40 km from the Israeli-Lebanese border. Over the 60-day transition period, the IDF will leave southern Lebanon, and the Lebanese army will deploy approximately 5,000 soldiers south of the Litani, including 33 posts along the Israeli border. Hezbollah will withdraw from southern Lebanon, and its military infrastructure in the region will be dismantled. The U.S. is also reported to have provided an additional letter outlining Israel’s right to respond to any violations of the ceasefire.
“Once we examine the agreement signed by the enemy government, we will see if there is consistency between what we have stated and what the Lebanese officials agreed to,” said Hezbollah Political Council Deputy Head Mahmoud Kamati in an interview with Al Jazeera.
“We want to end (Israeli) aggression, of course, but not at the cost of Lebanon’s sovereignty. Any violation of sovereignty is unacceptable,” he added.
Nonetheless, the ceasefire was largely respected early on Wednesday, and signs of celebration were even observed in Beirut, the day after Israel carried out its most intensive airstrikes on the Lebanese capital since the start of the hostilities.
Hours before the Security Cabinet vote, Israel dramatically escalated its strikes on Beirut, targeting central areas of the Lebanese capital for the first time in the conflict, rather than just the southern suburbs controlled by Hezbollah. According to Lebanon’s Ministry of Health, at least 10 people were killed in the central Beirut airstrikes.
Reuters footage from the southern suburbs of Beirut on the morning of November 27 showed vehicles honking, scooters honking, and pedestrians waving and handing out yellow Hezbollah flags.
The day before, IDF advanced units had reached the Litani River, which, according to Washington commentators, was a “symbolic event” that pushed the Lebanese side to accept the truce terms proposed by the U.S. mediator.
France is also mentioned among the mediators in the ceasefire, though its relations with Israel have recently deteriorated. Nevertheless, Paris retains significant influence in its former colony and across the Arab world, particularly in its ties with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, major financial donors to Lebanon, which is grappling with a severe economic crisis.
Earlier this month, Israeli and Arab media outlets also reported that Russia was acting as a mediator, given Moscow’s close ties to Iran, which is Hezbollah’s closest ally in the region. However, Russia’s role in brokering the deal has yet to be officially confirmed.
In a pre-recorded televised address Tuesday evening, Prime Minister Netanyahu said Hezbollah was “not the same” after the Israeli offensive, and gave three reasons why he was now seeking a ceasefire. First, to allow Israel to “focus on the Iranian threat.” Second, to allow for rotation in the IDF, giving the military a breathing space and replenishing its resources, which he said had been depleted in part by “major delays” in delivering weapons and ammunition. And third, to keep Hamas isolated in Gaza, without Hezbollah being able to fight alongside its Palestinian ally, the Israeli prime minister listed.
While the ceasefire agreement represents a significant breakthrough – after months of negotiations that the US State Department at one point called “incredibly frustrating” – it is not yet clear whether it will lead to a lasting peace, CNN reported on the morning of November 27.
Before the vote in the security cabinet, the deal had sparked fury among the more radical wing of the Netanyahu-led government coalition and alarm among residents of northern Israel, many of whom were displaced by the conflict, as well as residents of southern Lebanon across the border.
National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir (a far-right politician) last Monday called the pending deal a “historic mistake” that failed to achieve the main goal of the war – the return of displaced Israelis to their homes in the north. Ben-Gvir is also known for “long blocking potential ceasefires between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip,” the American TV channel notes.
In addition to the internal unrest in the government, mayors of Israel’s northernmost communities were outraged by reports that Netanyahu’s cabinet intends to approve the deal, with one calling it a “surrender agreement” and “a disgrace of historic proportions.”
Avichai Stern, the mayor of Kiryat Shmona, where Hezbollah fire has forced residents to flee their homes, called on the central government to “stop and think about the children of Kiryat Shmona” before approving the ceasefire.
“I don’t understand how we went from absolute victory to total capitulation,” Stern fumed on social media.
Netanyahu tried to smooth over domestic discontent in his address, assuring that Israel “will respond decisively” if Hezbollah violates the agreement and tries to rearm.
“If they try to rebuild terrorist infrastructure near the border, we will attack. If they launch a rocket, if they dig a tunnel, if they bring a truck with rockets, we will attack,” the prime minister assured his fellow citizens.
Defense Minister Israel Katz ordered the military to take “decisive and uncompromising” action to prevent Hezbollah members from infiltrating border villages where Israeli troops may still be operating, The Times of Israel reports.
“In connection with the incursion of Hezbollah members into Kfar Kila (a village in southern Lebanon – Ed.), Katz ordered the military to act decisively and uncompromisingly against events of this kind,” the office of the head of the Israeli Ministry of Defense said in a statement.
It is necessary to prevent Hezbollah from penetrating into areas in southern Lebanon, where the IDF continues to prohibit such movements, “and if they endanger Israeli troops, they must be attacked,” they added.
A poll conducted by the Israeli television channel Channel 13 News showed that 61 percent of Israelis believe that the IDF has not defeated Hezbollah, and only 26% of them believe the opposite. The rest, according to a public opinion poll published on the evening of November 26, found it difficult to answer. Meanwhile, 44% of those polled supported the ceasefire agreement, 38% are against it. Almost a fifth of respondents, about 19%, did not know how to answer this question.
The ceasefire agreement may restore the status quo, but does not solve the underlying problems, experts say. They draw attention to the fact that the deal is a “ceasefire under duress” that does not address the underlying problems of the regional conflict.
“The US has been pressuring Israel for months to stop fighting. Hezbollah is also under pressure from Israel after its entire leadership was effectively wiped out by Israel in a series of assassinations,” notes former Pentagon Middle East adviser Jasmine el-Gamal.
She said the deal brokered by the US and France may ease tensions in the region, but it only “takes us back to some kind of status quo.” Under the agreement, Lebanon will strictly monitor Hezbollah movements south of the Litani River to prevent the Party of Allah from regrouping there. In this regard, El-Gamal recalls that “the legitimate force of the Lebanese government, that is, the Lebanese army, has always faced resistance from Hezbollah.” Therefore, it is highly likely that during the 60-day pause, both Hezbollah and Israel will simply regroup and rearm, preparing for the next phase of confrontation.
According to former Israeli intelligence officer and now Middle East analyst Avi Melamed, the actions of the Lebanese government after the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah will be decisive in determining “whether this paramilitary group will be able to continue to impose its will on Lebanon.”
“Looking ahead, we can say that restoring Lebanon’s sovereignty is the most important issue, especially in light of Hezbollah’s dominance in the country,” Melamed noted.
“The overall situation remains extremely unstable. Hezbollah, although weakened, still plays a significant role. And the question remains whether it will regain its strength, setting the stage for a more intense future conflict,” he concluded.
The results of the 57-day war between Israel and Hezbollah, if we count from the beginning of the IDF ground invasion of southern Lebanon, are as follows.
According to the Lebanese Ministry of Health as of November 24, at least 3,768 people have been killed in the country since October 2023, and 15,700 have been wounded. These figures do not distinguish between Hezbollah fighters and civilians. Among the civilians killed, more than 900 were women and children. About 1.2 million people were displaced.
Israel claims that Hezbollah has lost over 2,000 people killed alone. The “Party of Allah” in turn admitted the death of about 500 of its fighters during the fighting on the ground, which began on 1 October.
The Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University, which has close ties to the Jewish state’s military establishment, claims that Hezbollah’s casualties totaled 2,450.
Hezbollah strikes killed 45 civilians in northern Israel and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. More than 60,000 were forced to flee their homes in the north.
According to Israeli authorities, at least 73 IDF soldiers were killed in northern Israel, the Golan Heights, and in fighting in southern Lebanon.
According to a World Bank (WB) report, Lebanon suffered an estimated $2.8 billion in damage to its housing stock, with more than 99,000 units partially or completely destroyed. According to the American University of Beirut’s Urban Development Lab, at least 262 buildings were destroyed by Israeli strikes in the southern suburbs of Beirut alone, a Hezbollah stronghold.
The Israeli military also inflicted significant damage on villages and towns in the Bekaa Valley and southern Lebanon, areas where Hezbollah had held sway. The World Bank report estimates agricultural damage at $124 million, with more than $1.1 billion in losses due to crop and livestock destruction and the displacement of farmers.
The Israeli government estimates its material losses at at least NIS 1 billion ($275 million). Thousands of homes, farms and businesses were damaged or destroyed. For Israel, the conflict with Hezbollah has compounded the economic impact of the Gaza war, putting additional strain on government finances. The budget deficit has grown to about 8% of GDP, prompting all three major global rating agencies to downgrade Israel’s rating this year. The conflict has also exacerbated supply chain disruptions, pushing inflation in Israel to 3.5%, above the country’s central bank’s target range of 1-3%.
