Ireland vs Australia will set the tone for the Lions’ Test series against the Wallabies… the Irish are set to have the biggest representation in next summer’s touring squad

Events in Dublin on Saturday will reverberate Down Under, now and until next summer, as the clash between Ireland and Australia will set the tone for the Lions’ Test series against the Wallabies.

It is Andy Farrell versus Joe Schmidt on Saturday afternoon, as it will be in Brisbane, Melbourne and Sydney, on successive weekends in July and August. Their teams will both be striving for a result which could have significant, wider implications when the cream of British and Irish rugby, backed by the famous Red Army – an estimated 40,000 travelling fans – aim for a 2025 repeat of their triumph in the same hostile territory 12 years earlier.

As the man poised to take charge of the Lions, Farrell is well aware of this bigger picture, but first he will maintain a firm focus on Ireland’s bid to round off their Autumn Nations Series with an emphatic victory. The side lying second in the World Rugby rankings need to finish with a flourish, to ward off the suspicion that they are in the first stages of a decline, after losing to New Zealand and struggling to put away Argentina.

Notwithstanding those faint fears, a core of Ireland players are still destined to be the dominant contingent in the next Lions squad. Every four years, the selection process shines a light on the balance of power within the home nations. At present, rankings and perceptions point to Ireland having the biggest representation in the squad, followed by Scotland, then England, with Wales facing the threat of near-total eclipse this time.

It may not be a vintage crop of candidates across the four countries, but in many areas competition will be typically fierce. So, who are the front-line English contenders for inclusion? Maro Itoje and Marcus Smith lead the way, along with wing sensation Immanuel Feyi-Waboso, Ellis Genge, and other current stalwarts of the Red Rose pack such as Tom Curry, George Martin and Ollie Chessum.

Ben Earl should make the cut but Jack Willis may be denied his rightful chance to push for a place if Toulouse – as per normal – are on course to make the Top 14 play-offs. Chandler Cunningham-South is emerging as a Lions prospect, but the tussle for back-row spots will be as cut-throat as ever. There may yet be time for a young England prop such as Fin Baxter or Asher Opoku-Fordjour to challenge.

Schmidt’s team will host the Lions in Brisbane, Melbourne and Sydney in July and August.

Wales have a proud record of mass-producing Lions in the professional era, but their run of 12 Test defeats has raised the unthinkable scenario that they may end up unrepresented in a Lions squad of between 36 and 40 players. Recent captains Dewi Lake and Jac Morgan could be picked, but not many other compatriots are in the mix. James Botham was heroic in adversity against the Springboks but he is in a long back-row queue, and the same applies to Tommy Reffell.

In the coming months, Test team selection debates will intensify, none more so than the choice of No 10, where it is shaping up as a box-office contest between Finn Russell and Marcus Smith. Ireland are busy developing their post-Johnny Sexton playmaker options, while Owen Farrell come could into the reckoning if he returns to action for Racing and excels. But Jamison Gibson-Park, on duty for Ireland on Saturday, is surely a shoo-in as the Lions starting scrum-half.

In a sense, the wider selection game is to consider which non-Irish players can claim a place in the Lions’ first-choice XV, ahead of men who Farrell has such a regard for, from his day-job. Scotland captain Sione Tuipulotu and his regular midfield side-kick Huw Jones, perhaps, but Bundee Aki, Robbie Henshaw and Garry Ringrose – all facing the Wallabies on Saturday – are right in the mix.

Feyi-Waboso has a chance to force himself into the Test XV, with James Lowe or Duhan van der Merwe on the other wing. At full-back, Hugo Keenan is the front-runner. Scotland’s Blair Kinghorn could challenge, but he is another potential victim of Toulouse’s domestic success in France.

Up front, it wouldn’t be a leap of the imagination to see an all-Ireland front row of Andrew Porter, Dan Sheehan and Tadhg Furlong. Itoje is a near-certainty at lock, potentially alongside Tadhg Beirne, unless he wears six, which would probably mean either Joe McCarthy or James Ryan claiming the other second row place. If Curry is fit and at his peak – but that is a big ‘if’ – it is likely to be the Sale flanker or Josh van der Flier at openside.

Captaincy is always an area of huge intrigue. Caelan Doris is the favourite for that honour, as well as for the Test No 8 shirt, but he won’t allow himself to consider the possibility just yet. ‘It’s beyond my thinking,’ he said recently. ‘When I was setting my season goals, of course it came up about making the tour – I’d absolutely love to. But you don’t want to get lost in something down the line and not perform each week, or you end up losing out on it.’

There is no escaping the fact that while the Leinster forward is a classy, respected and eloquent figure, he is not the sort of established leader that the Lions have had on previous modern-era tours. He does not possess the iconic status of an Alun Wyn Jones or Sam Warburton, Paul O’Connell or Brian O’Driscoll or Martin Johnson. But, frankly, who else is there? Itoje, maybe.

Whatever is said about leadership groups, the captain needs to be a Test certainty. There are not too many of those with the requisite status and authority – and the sort of ambassadorial quality which plays a part too, on such a high-profile, long-haul sporting mission.

The Lions squad and captain are likely to be announced in late April or early May next year. Before that, Farrell snr will unveil his assistant coaches after the Six Nations. It will be intriguing to see if he opts for familiarity and continuity, or a revamp, to put his own stamp on the set-up. Paul O’Connell and Adam Jones could be new additions, while Gregor Townsend and Steve Tandy were involved in 2021 and may be asked again.

Felix Jones is back in Dublin, still nominally working for England and serving his 12-month notice period. There is no reason why he can’t be approached to run the defence, although implementing a blitz system in a limited time-frame would be quite an assignment. Neil Jenkins has been an ever-present as the kicking guru on the last four tours, so that is another stick-or-twist quandary for the head coach. How about Sexton for that role? Or Jonny Wilkinson? It might suit Kevin Sinfield too.

Farrell is officially in Lions mode from next week, although he may take a break before getting stuck into the momentous task. He will travel Down Under for an operational recce in January, before closely scrutinising the Six Nations as he fine-tunes his selection planning. There is still ample time for a shift in the balance of power and for late bolters to emerge, as is a long-standing tradition.

The first Englishman to take charge of a British and Irish crusade since Sir Clive Woodward 20 years earlier will know that what awaits will be more far difficult than was expected a few months ago. The Wallabies were in utter disarray, but have revived on this home nations tour.

Saturday’s clash with Ireland will offer a better indication of Australia’s credentials, but they were strong and slick, dashing and deadly in snatching a win against England and putting Wales to the sword, before being ambushed by Scotland last weekend. Farrell is full of admiration for the transformative work of his former boss, Schmidt, who he will lock horns with on Saturday.

‘I think they’ve got their DNA back,’ he said. ‘He (Schmidt) used a good few players at first and took a bit of pain, but he’s done the right thing. They’re reaping the reward for that. They’ve always got the athletes. He’s tried to find out about them more personally over the last six months. He’s got that now and he’s got them playing really good rugby.’

The respect is mutual. Schmidt recognises that Farrell is a motivational master of his trade, who will be going back next summer to the place where his ‘Hurt Arena’ speech in 2013 went straight into Lions folklore.

This duel between the master and the cross-code apprentice will be fascinating on Saturday and even more so when the main event happens on the other side of the world. 

Farrell and his Lions – largely founded on the Ireland side he will temporarily step away from – are bound to be series favourites. But the quest to mould a functional team in a hurry will be as complex as ever, and the Wallabies have proved that they are not going to be easy prey.