Voters across Ireland cast their ballots in the country’s general election on 29 November and, with all seats counted, the Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael coalition is likely to continue as support for Sinn Féin declines.
Counting took place over three days, with over 90 per cent of seats decided by Monday morning. The results set up members from Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael for relatively straightforward negotiations, with the two parties securing a combined 86 seats out of the 88 required to govern.
It was Fianna Fáil that emerged as the largest party with 48 seats, followed by Sinn Féin’s 39. Fine Gael secured third spot with 38.
Micheal Martin, Fianna Fáil leader and Ireland‘s deputy premier, said: “We’ll let the dust settle and savour the moment. We’ll then be in a position over the next couple of days to assess the landscape, devise our strategies.”
The two-seat shortage means that Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael will need to strike a deal with a smaller party or independent candidates. This could be the Labour Party or the Social Democrats – both securing 11 seats – or the right-leaning Independent Ireland, which won four.
The two parties joined in a coalition for the first time after the 2020 election result. Their arrangement meant that the position of Irish prime minister, the taoiseach, was swapped halfway through the term.
Mr Martin held the role until December 2022, when Leo Varadkar took over. Current Fine Gael leader Simon Harris then succeeded Mr Vardakar in March 2024 after the veteran Irish politician stood down.
One of Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael has been in power in Ireland since the foundation of the state more than 100 years ago. But the two parties’ combined vote share has declined for a fourth consecutive general election to reach a record low.
Sinn Féin has said it is also looking to open negotiations, as the party’s TD for Dublin Mid West said it is looking to talk to other “progressive parties”.
However, it would be a major feat of negotiation if the party was able to pull the 88 seats from these talks, with every single one of the remaining 49 new TDs required to come to their side to make up the number.
Despite coming second, the results are likely especially disappointing for Sinn Féin. After achieving its highest vote share since 1922 in 2020, the party’s support has dipped significantly this year.
It marks the first fall in support for Sinn Féin in 35 years, and the biggest drop in support for any party at this election.
Largely filling the space left by these three largest parties are smaller parties and independent candidates, taking 17 seats this year.
However, the Greens have not followed suit, instead seeing their vote share drop 4.1 per cent and losing all but one of their 12 seats. Some have suggested this is due to voters disappointed in the party instead choosing to support the government.
