Tonight, Ohio Senator JD Vance and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz will face off in their only vice presidential debate. Given that Donald Trump has publicly said he will not debate Kamala Harris again, this will likely be the final televised debate before the nation votes on Election Day.
Betting odds show that most people think Walz will prevail against Vance. And there is good reason for that. Walz has consistently had to debate in tough elections ever since he first ran for Congress in 2006. As a Democrat in a battleground district, Walz often had to defend his hewing to the Democratic line. Even in relatively easier races when he ran for governor, he faced tough questions on his record during tumultuous times.
When Vance went from being a critic of Trump to an acolyte and then a candidate for Senate, he significantly underperformed the top of the ticket in Ohio in his one race. He largely only won the Republican nomination on the back of Trump’s endorsement — which he then parlayed into becoming Trump’s running mate.
The Independent reviewed multiple debate performances from Walz and Vance’s career. For Walz, we looked at his first debate in 2006 when he ran for Congress; his 2010 re-election debate after he voted for Obamacare; and his 2022 debate when he ran for re-election for governor in the aftermath of strident Black Lives Matter protests.
For Vance, The Independent reviewed two of his primary debates when he was at the back of the pack, and one of his general election debates against his Democratic opponent, Tim Ryan. We are also including coverage of his second debate with Ryan.
Debates are inherently performance in their nature and are rarely about subtance. They focus on how candidates can pivot from an uncomfortable topic to more familiar ground, as well as how they can attack an ideological opponent.
Perhaps the biggest weak point Vance has is his previous criticism of Trump, which moderators asked him about in one of the primary debates on March 21, 2022. During that time, he essentially stated that he was more immature when he’d said those things and added that he had recently gotten married, converted to Catholicism and had children.
“I got baptized three years ago. I’ve had three kids since then,” he said. “A lot’s different, and one of the things that’s different is that I did change my mind about Donald Trump. He was a great president, and I think at the end of the day, one of the things this race presents is an opportunity. Who actually agrees with Trump on the core issues of trade, of immigration, who’s willing to fight for an America First foreign policy? I think it’s clearly me.”
Another indicator of how Vance might perform came during that debate when Matt Dolan, whose family owned the Cleveland Guardians baseball team, attacked him for his opposition to supporting Ukraine.
“You have caused them additional pain,” he said, of Ukrainians suffering under Russian occupation.
In response, Vance hit Dolan for his family changing the name of the Cleveland Indians to the Cleveland Guardians.
“Interesting to hear a lecture on strength from a guy who changed the name of the Cleveland Indians to the Cleveland Guardians, which, of course, was a joke,” he said. “I never said I don’t care about the people of Ukraine. I said the matter of what happens to Ukraine is not in our vital national interest.”
During his primary debates, Vance regularly threw out red meat to the primary base whenever he had the opportunity. During his closing remarks in a primary debate the week after, he made sure to include the fact that Lia Thomas, a transgender swimmer, had beaten other swimmers in a women’s race — an issue which he then used to pivot to talking about Big Tech.
“We just saw a biological male win a women’s swimming competition,” he said. “And what bothers me about that situation is the fact that you got pharmaceutical companies getting rich off of it, ideological leaders in colleges pushing this stuff nonstop, and also big technology companies who will silence you for even speaking honestly about it.”
