How Hurricane Helene could swing the election after storm battered two crucial swing states

Hurricane Helene, which tore through the southeastern United States and took more than 185 lives, may also effect this year’s presidential election.

The hurricane was the first catastrophe in US history to hit two crucial swing states – North Carolina and Georgia – within just six weeks of a presidential election, according to Politico.

It particularly devastated heavily Republican areas of the two states, giving Vice President Kamala Harris a potential edge over former President Donald Trump.

But it also hit some predominantly Democratic areas as well, such as Buncombe and Watauga counties in North Carolina.

As a result, the tempest could ‘dramatically change who is in the electorate,’ said Chris Cooper, a political scientist at Western Carolina University.

‘In a state like North Carolina, where margins matter, then every little tweak could be the tweak that makes the difference,’ he said, noting that North Carolina is ‘right on the razor’s edge between red and blue.’ 

In 2020, Trump won 61 percent of the vote in the North Carolina counties that were declared a disaster zone following Hurricane Helene. He also won 54 percent of the vote in Georgia’s disaster counties, Politico reports.

Polls now show that Trump is leading Harris in both North Carolina and Georgia by just about one percentage point – well within the margin of error.

But the storm may have completely destroyed polling places, with W. Travis Doss Jr., the executive director of Georgia’s Augusta-Richmond County Board of Elections telling CNN: ‘We have no power. We have no water. Cell service is limited.’

And if a voter’s polling place has been changed while they are already struggling to rebuild their community, ‘then maybe that’s the straw that makes it too much for them to vote,’ said Kevin Morris, a voting policy scholar at the Brennan Center for Justice.

Officials in both North Carolina and Georgia are now facing crucial decisions about how to help people register to vote and get people to the polls after massive flooding tore apart roads, shuttered towns and dispersed residents.

Some of those decisions include whether to extend next week’s voter registration deadline, grant more time for voters to cast absentee ballots and set up new polling places in areas where floods destroyed the roads.

North Carolina state records obtained by Politico show that nearly 40,000 absentee ballots have been mailed out to voters in 25 counties that were devastated by the storm, but thus far, fewer than 1,000 have been returned.

County elections offices are now scheduled to assess the damage to early voting sites next week to determine ‘which facilities won’t be available,’ said Karen Brinson Bell, executive director of the State Board of Elections.

Then, when the state legislature meets on Wednesday, it will vote on whether to give counties money for emergency polling places and extend both the October 11 registration deadline and the Election Day deadline for mail-in ballots to be received. 

In the meantime, Bell said, the board is focusing its efforts on getting elections offices reopened ‘so that absentee ballot requests can be processed and voter registrations can be entered into the system,’ the Asheville Citizen Times reports. 

Some counties will also receive emergency kits, which Bell called ‘election offices in a box’ so they can operate despite phone and internet issues.

Bell also suggested the board may set up temporary early voting sites in tents in parking lots like the state did when Hurricane Dorian hit in 2019, and is considering an emergency authorization to expand who can be a poll worker.

‘Mountain people are strong and the election people who serve them are resilient and tough too,’ Bell said. ‘Just go back to 2020, when we held an incredibly successful election with record turnout during the COVID pandemic.’ 

‘We’ve battled through hurricanes and tropical storms, too, and still held safe and secure elections. And we will do everything in our power to do so again.’ 

In Georgia, where Monday is the last day to register to vote, meanwhile, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger promised ‘physical infrastructure’ will be in place when early voting on October 15.

Any counties ‘having to relocate early voting locations’ must notify residents, he added. 

‘We have to let the first responders finish doing their jobs, but as power is restored and voting locations can be assessed, we will make sure that the upcoming election is safe, secure and convenient for all Georgia voters,’ Raffensperger said. 

States have previously extended the deadlines for registering to vote and submitting absentee ballots, opened new polling places and allowed displaced residents to vote by email or fax – to varying results.

A 2022 study Morris conducted found that voter turnout fell below historic averages in the heavily Republican Florida Panhandle after Hurricane Michael demolished the area in October 2018.

It said that even though Florida made it easier to vote absentee, many residents were confused by the state’s decision to close and consolidate polling places – leaving them unsure where to go on Election Day.

Then, when Hurricane Sandy hit the tristate area one week before the 2012 presidential election, New Jersey Republican Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno ruled that anyone who was displaced by the storm could be designated an overseas voter, allowing them to cast ballots by fax and email.

The decision overwhelmed county governments, which were inundated with thousands of fax and email applications.

A 2014 Rutgers Law School report criticized Guadagno’s decision, saying that remote voting caused ‘chaos’ and made electronic votes vulnerable to hacking.

‘Although emergency action was warranted, Internet and email voting was not the solution,’ it concluded. 

Yet another study found that Sandy made ‘little difference’ in determining how New York City residents would vote, because many were highly motivated to re-elect former President Barack Obama. 

When people see an election as ‘historic’ or potentially having ‘long-lasting effects’ on their community, ‘they are willing t endure costs such as low temperatures, long lines and even traveling to distant polling places,’ the researchers wrote.