House prices grew by just 1.5% this year: Will they rise more in 2025?

House prices went up by 1.5 per cent over the past year, according to Zoopla. 

It represents a return to growth, after prices fell by 1.2 per cent over the course of 2023 as buyers struggled to adjust to volatile mortgage rates.

However, it is still far less than the 7.2 per cent growth the property website recorded over the course of 2022. 

Zoopla suggests the housing market has now turned a corner and that buyers have accepted higher borrowing costs, and predicts prices to rise more in 2025. 

Mortgage rates have also somewhat settled with most buyers this year able to secure rates between 4 and 5 per cent.

A growth in household incomes has also boosted some buyers’ budgets.

Office for National Statistics data on home buyers using a mortgage shows the average household income of first-time buyers and existing owners has risen by between 9 and 12 per cent over the last two years.

Zoopla says 2024 looks set to end strongly as serious buyers look to lock in sales and beat the return of higher stamp duty rates from April 2025. 

Home movers currently pay stamp duty if their home costs more than £250,000, but in March 2025 this will drop back to £125,000 – the level it was at before temporary changes were made in the 2022 mini-Budget. 

A first-time buyer purchasing a property up to the value of £425,000 currently pays no stamp duty. However, this limit is due to drop back to the old threshold of £300,000.

This means the same £425,000 purchase will be subject to a £6,205 tax bill from 1 April.

Sales agreed are 19 per cent higher than this time last year, according to Zoopla, with buyer enquiries up 25 per cent. 

Earning more: Higher household incomes have provided a boost to property purchases

Look to the future: OBR forecasts suggest smaller wage rises going into 2025

Northern towns see biggest house price rises 

Every region across the UK has seen house prices rise, though there remains a north-south divide.

The biggest price gains have been recorded in Northern Ireland, with house prices up 6.3 per cent compared to a year ago. The North West of England has seen prices rise 2.9 per cent during that time.

However, across southern England, where affordability pressures remain a drag on house price growth, prices have grown by 1 per cent or less.

In more local markets, the biggest price rises have been registered in some of the towns surrounding Manchester.

For example, the average property in Oldham has risen 3.7 per cent year-on-year and in Wigan the average home is up 3.9 per cent.

In contrast, modest price falls are still being recorded in pockets of southern England led by Ipswich, down 1.1 per cent, Truro and Dartford – both down 1.2 per cent respectively.

North star: Outside of Northern Ireland, the North East and North West have made biggest gains

What will happen to house prices in 2025? 

Property experts at Zoopla are predicting a 2.5 per cent annual increase in the average property price in 2025. 

Incomes are forecasted to grow more modestly after 2025 according to the OBR and Zoopla is predicting that mortgage rates are unlikely to change over the next 12 months.

Zoopla says the typical mortgage rate will remain at around 4.25 per cent for the average home buyer over the course of 2025.

In addition to the mortgage rate paid by a home buyer, lenders will also stress test new borrowers to check they can still afford their mortgage if rates rise. 

The calculation is typically based on the lender’s standard variable rate plus a certain percentage. At the moment, it means some lenders are testing that borrowers could afford a mortgage rate of around 8 per cent. 

Standard variable rates tend to fall when the Bank of England cuts the base rate, though it is at each lenders’ discretion. 

Future interest rate cuts by the Bank of England should result in mortgage lenders relaxing the ‘stress testing’ affordability checks they subject borrowers to. 

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Are homes overvalued?

Ultimately, the key factor influencing the outlook for house prices is whether current prices appear cheap or expensive. 

The cheaper the prices appear, the more likely they are to rise. Conversely, if homes appear expensive, the house prices are less likely to rise.

Zoopla has a model that tracks whether homes are under or overvalued. In 2007, at the time of the global financial crisis, house prices were over 40 per cent over-valued and house prices fell sharply over 2008/9.

The recent jump in mortgage rates between 2022 and 2023 led to UK homes to become 16 per cent overvalued by Zoopla’s same measure. 

However, lower mortgage rates have repaired this over-valuation over 2024 without the need for house price falls, Zoopla said. 

Looking forward, its property experts expect house prices to remain undervalued over 2025. 

This assumes an average mortgage rate of 4.25 per cent, house prices rising by 2.5 per cent and income growth of 4.6 per cent. 

In the three years to the end of 2027, Zoopla expects house prices to grow by 7.5 per cent.

Undervalued: Zoopla claims house prices currently appear cheap and could therefore rise

But the north-south divide in affordability means it’s not that simple.

House prices are currently fairly valued in the Midlands, Northern England, Scotland and Wales, according to Zoopla. This explains why prices are rising at an above-average rate in these areas. 

In contrast, house prices in southern regions appear overvalued by 30 per cent or more, by Zoopla’s metrics. 

For this reason, Zoopla is expecting house price growth in southern England to under-perform the UK average over 2025 and into 2026. 

It says incomes need to grow faster than prices to improve affordability further in southern regions.

Richard Donnell, executive director at Zoopla said: ‘The housing market has been resilient in the face of higher borrowing costs over the last two years. 

‘Higher income growth and lower mortgage rates have helped reset housing affordability faster than many expected over 2024. 

‘This has supported an increase in the number of sales and house prices over the year which we expect to continue over 2025.’

Taxing times: More home buyers will pay stamp duty next year as the tax is set to rise

Simon Gerrard, managing director of Martyn Gerrard Estate Agents is expecting a ‘fast-paced and exciting year’ for the property market next year.

‘In the immediate term, we can expect activity to be especially high amongst first time buyers, who will be mindful of the increase to stamp duty that was hidden in Labour’s Autumn Budget and will come into effect as of 1 April. 

‘This will especially impact first-time buyers, and so it is imperative that those looking to get on to the property ladder, especially in London, do so before this tax hike occurs.’

He added: ‘Looking further ahead, as interest rates trickle down over the course of next year, we should also see people who have held off on their property search this year drive it back into action, resulting in a higher number of enquiries and purchases at every level of the market. 

‘Overall, the turbulence of 2024 looks set to give way to a fast paced and exciting year for the property market in 2025.’