The UK has also revised its advice to make clear that US authorities are “strictly” enforcing entry rules and visitors “may be liable to arrest of detention” if they break them; this followed the 19-day confinement of 28-year-old Welsh backpacker Becky Burke in February. The specifics of her case haven’t been disclosed, but helping host families with household chores in return for accommodation may have prompted the action. Burke’s parents later complained to the BBC that she was transferred in “leg chains, waist chains and handcuffs” like “Hannibal Lecter”.
Meanwhile, France and the US have provided starkly differing accounts for why a French scientist was refused entry this month, preventing the unnamed individual from attending a conference near Houston.
MAGA types wondering why they should care should consider the potential economic impact if holidaymakers become afraid to fly to the US.
The US has denied that opinions about the Trump administration’s research policies expressed by the individual in phone messages were behind the decision, claiming the real reason was related to confidential information stored on an electronic device in violation of a non-disclosure agreement. Nevertheless, the scientific community has been shaken.
Several European countries have also warned transgender individuals may face difficulties entering the US if their passports state their gender as “X” rather than male or female because the Trump administration doesn’t recognise this designation.
To be sure, the vast majority of the 72 million annual visitors to the US aren’t facing problems at the border; and in 2024, fewer than 0.01 per cent of arriving international visitors had their electronic devices searched by US customs.
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Nor do I think tourists deserve more sympathy than undocumented immigrants facing deportation or the foreign students and academics who’ve been detained for having foreign policy views the Trump administration finds offensive.
But MAGA types wondering why they should care should consider the potential economic impact if holidaymakers become afraid to fly to the US.
In 2023, the most recent year for which there are comprehensive estimates, overseas visitors spent $US100 billion ($159 billion) on leisure activities in the US, plus around $US50 billion on education and $US23 billion on business trips, according to government Bureau of Economic Analysis data analysed by the National Travel and Tourism Office.
Lucrative North Atlantic flights depend more on US travellers heading to Europe rather than the other way around, and this US outbound travel demand remains strong. Nevertheless, airlines, hotel groups and tourist attractions may be in for a shock.
Cancelling US trips in droves
A forecast published last month by research firm Tourism Economics warning of a potential 5 per cent decline in international visits to the US in 2025 could turn out to be quite conservative.
Anti-American sentiment is on the rise, fuelled by tariffs, Trump’s cosying up to Russia and his apparent wish to annex Canada and Greenland (from Denmark), not to mention Vice President JD Vance’s disdain for European allies.
Canadians have been cancelling US trips in droves – the number of its residents returning home from the US by road fell 23 per cent in February, while 13 per cent fewer returned by air. Europeans are reportedly having similar misgivings about US travel.
Overall, international tourist arrivals declined 2.4 per cent year-on-year in February, according to the National Travel and Tourism Office whose preliminary data excludes Mexico and Canada.
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Don’t forget the US was struggling to attract foreign tourists even before Trump won a second term due in part to the strong dollar. In 2024, US inbound travel was still around 9 per cent below pre-pandemic levels with arrivals from China and Japan particularly slow to recover.
The spotlight on how the US treats foreign visitors will increase next year when it holds soccer’s FIFA World Cup, together with Mexico and Canada. (Never mind the players; getting the hosts to play nice with each other could be quite the challenge.)
The US’s authoritarian lurch probably won’t prevent die-hard sports fans from enjoying the tournament, but other visitors are likely to be more principled.
Trump’s unpredictability and assault on the rule of law could yet have a silver lining for international visitors: A weaker dollar would make US trips more affordable. But by then the US will have destroyed so much international goodwill that few will want to come.
My advice to anyone who must travel to the US is to familiarise yourself with your rights, be doubly sure your paperwork is in order, consider what information you have stored on mobile devices and be very precise about your travel intentions when quizzed by border officials.
And don’t even think about overstaying your welcome.
Bloomberg
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