Cairo: Hani Kamal El-Din
Syria, after years of civil war and foreign interventions, is witnessing dramatic shifts in power dynamics, particularly in Kurdish-held regions. With the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime and Turkey’s growing influence in northern Syria, the Kurds find themselves on the defensive, facing threats from Turkish forces and allied militias. These developments raise critical questions about the future of the Kurds in Syria and the role of the United States in their protection, especially after the change in U.S. leadership and the inauguration of Donald Trump.
Growing Threats to the Kurds in Syria
Withdrawal of U.S. Support
According to Peter Ford, the former British ambassador to Syria and a Middle East expert, the Kurds may lose U.S. support following the fall of the Assad regime. The Kurds’ primary mission was to hinder the Syrian government’s economic recovery by controlling oil and grain resources in the northeast. However, with changing circumstances, this mission is no longer a priority for the United States.
Normalization with Syrian Opposition
Ford believes that the armed opposition in Syria will seek to normalize relations with the U.S., but this process may not be as smooth as some expect. He suggests that the Kurds could become a bargaining chip between Washington and Ankara, especially given the apparent hostility between the Trump administration and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
Foreign Interventions and Their Impact on the Kurds
American and Turkish Occupation
Nadezhda Sablina, a Belarusian journalist and member of the Anti-Imperialist Front, argues that Syria has fallen under the control of multiple foreign powers, including the United States, Turkey, and Israel. She highlights the struggle over spheres of influence in Syria, particularly in Syrian Kurdistan, where tensions between Kurdish forces and Turkish-backed militias are escalating.
U.S. Exploitation of Resources
Sablina notes that after years of resisting Turkish forces, the Kurds were forced to cooperate with the United States, which established military bases in the region and freely exploits Syrian oil resources. She adds that stability in the region has become essential for the U.S. to continue its exploitation of these resources.
Military Battles and Turkish Strategies
Turkish Advances in Northwest Syria
Military and political expert Vladimir Sapunov points out that Turkish-backed forces have achieved significant tactical gains in northwest Syria, pushing the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) west of the Euphrates River. These forces are now planning to seize Kobani (Ayn al-Arab), a strategically important Kurdish city in Aleppo province.
The Significance of Kobani
Kobani was the scene of fierce battles between the Kurds and ISIS in October 2014, where the Kurds, with the help of female fighters, successfully defended the city. It became known as “Kobanîgrad” due to its resilience. Sapunov emphasizes that control of Kobani will be decisive for the future of Syrian Kurdistan (Rojava).
The Future of the Kurds in Syria
Military and Political Challenges
The Kurds face significant challenges in defending their territories, especially after some Arab militias withdrew from the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and joined the armed opposition. The SDF consisted of approximately 25,000 Kurdish fighters and 5,000 Arab fighters, who acted as U.S. overseers.
The U.S. Role
The United States supported the Kurds in their fight against ISIS, including providing air cover. However, with the fall of the Assad regime, the SDF is no longer needed as a counterforce to the Syrian government. The U.S. may use the Kurds as a bargaining tool with Turkey, increasing Kurdish fears of abandonment.
Kurdish-Turkish Relations
Historical Tensions
Relations between the Kurds and Turkey have been fraught with tension, particularly due to the Syrian Kurds’ ties to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). Turkey has attempted to use imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan as a negotiating tool with the Kurds, but these efforts have failed to achieve lasting peace.
The Future of Negotiations
Experts believe that any negotiations between the Kurds and Turkey will require a strong foundation on the ground. Although the Kurds have proven to be among the world’s best fighters, they face a real risk of being marginalized in the regional political game.
Conclusion: An Uncertain Future for Syrian Kurdistan
Upcoming Challenges
The Kurds in Syria face an uncertain future, with increasing military and political pressures from Turkey and other regional powers. With the potential withdrawal of U.S. support, the future of Syrian Kurdistan becomes even more complicated.
Lessons from Iraqi Kurdistan
The experience of Iraqi Kurdistan may serve as inspiration for Syrian Kurds, as Iraqi Kurds have built a stable administration with strong ties to the United States. However, the fundamental differences between the two situations make it difficult to apply the same model in Syria.
The battle for Kobani is not just a military conflict but a fight for survival and identity for the Kurds in Syria. Amid significant challenges, the question remains: Can the Kurds maintain their presence in a region undergoing radical transformations?
