It would also create a leadership vacuum in the heart of Europe even as it deals with a host of challenges including Trump threatening a trade war and attempting to fast-track a ceasefire deal for Ukraine without European involvement.
Germany, which has an export-oriented economy and long relied on the United States for its security, is particularly vulnerable.
Germans are more pessimistic about their living standards now than at any time since the financial crisis in 2008.
Volunteers in Munich prepare postal votes during the German national election on Sunday.Credit: AP
Attitudes towards migration have also hardened, a profound shift in German public sentiment since its “Refugees Welcome” culture during Europe’s migrant crisis in 2015, that the AfD has both driven and harnessed.
Musk weighs in
Sunday’s election came after the collapse last November of Scholz’s coalition of his Social Democrats (SPD), the Greens and pro-market Free Democrats (FDP) in a row over budget spending.
The election campaign has been dominated by fierce exchanges over the perception that irregular immigration is out of control, fuelled by a series of attacks in which the suspected perpetrators were of migrant origin.
It has also been overshadowed by the unusually forceful show of solidarity by members of the Trump administration – including Vice President JD Vance and tech billionaire Elon Musk – for the anti-migrant AfD, and broadsides against European leaders.
The 12-year old AfD party took second place for the first time in a national election, according to the exit polls.
The AfD is unlikely to govern for now as all mainstream parties have ruled out working with it, though some analysts believe its strength could pave the way for an AfD win in 2029.
Support for the AfD, along with a small but significant vote share for the far left and the decline of Germany’s big-tent parties, is increasingly complicating the formation of coalitions and governance.
EU allies are cautiously hopeful the elections might deliver a more coherent government able to help drive forward policy at home and in the bloc.
Some also hope Merz will reform the “debt brake”, a constitutional mechanism to limit government borrowing that critics say has strangled new investment.
The most expected outcome of this election is a tie-up of Merz’s conservative bloc of Christian Democrats (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU) with the SPD in an uneasy “grand coalition.”
Another three-way coalition may be necessary if several small parties end up crossing the 5 per cent threshold to enter parliament, complicating talks.
Reuters
