The FBI has seized the CEO of Polymarket’s phone and electronics after the election-betting platform successfully forecast Donald Trump’s win.
Shayne Coplan, 26, was targeted at his Soho home during a dawn raid on Wednesday, sources told the New York Post.
The insider blasted the seizure as ‘grand political theater at its worst’.
‘They could have asked his lawyer for any of these things. Instead, they staged a so-called raid so they can leak it to the media and use it for obvious political reasons,’ the source said.
Coplan was reportedly not arrested or given a reason for the raid, but it is thought to be linked to his accurate predictions which outsmarted traditional polls.
Prediction prodigy Shane Coplan (pictured) and his start-up Polymarket turned out to be more accurate than pollsters as traders bet on an easy Donald Trump victory
‘This is obvious political retribution by the outgoing administration against Polymarket for providing a market that correctly called the 2024 presidential election,’ the source added.
Polymarket signaled for weeks that Trump would win, and the previously low-profile site turned out to be right – despite raising eyebrows of many experts.
Coplan said in a post on X after the results were announced: ‘Make no mistake, Polymarket single-handedly called the election before anything else. The global truth machine is here, powered by the people.’
In a statement to the New York Post, Polymarket said it is a ‘fully transparent prediction market’.
‘We charge no fees, take no trading positions, and allow observers from around the world to analyze all market data as a public good.’
Coplan has – until now – stayed out of the limelight.
But after his site – which invited users to bet money on a given outcome – managed to foreshadow the results of the November 5 US election, he has been the subject of praise from Elon Musk and American statistician Nate Silver.
Silver – one of many experts to predict the election would be extremely close – was so impressed that he joined the company as an adviser.
But in the aftermath of his predictions, the CEO has now had his phone and electronics seized by the FBI
But some critics cast doubt on Polymarket’s reliability and how representative it is of the American public.
The site has humble beginnings, with Coplan sharing a photo of his ‘office’ four years ago which was actually in his bathroom.
The young entrepreneur has kept his personal political leanings under wraps, but he recently went for breakfast with the Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.
Coplan said the company’s profile was boosted after it correctly called Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race.
However, he claims his site remains strictly non-partisan.
‘We’re just market nerds who think prediction markets provide the public with a much needed alternative data source,’ Coplan previously said. ‘Polymarket is not about politics.’
Polymarket, Kalshi and other betting platforms have quickly emerged as a way to put money on elections and gauge who’s ahead, after successive cycles in which pollster forecasts crashed and burned.
One financier managed to make around $85 million betting on the election through Polymarket.
The anonymous individual is a French national who had 11 accounts on the platform, according to the Wall Street Journal. Americans are not permitted to trade on the platform.
Bettors place ‘trades’ on a candidate and get a payout if they back the correct outcome.
Coplan was reportedly not arrested or given a reason for the raid, but it is thought to be linked to his accurate predictions which outsmarted traditional polls
More and bigger bets on a front-runner raise a candidate’s odds, while at the same time reducing bettors’ returns.
On Election Night it quickly became clear that the betting markets were on the money.
Polling, which involves canvassing voters about how they plan to vote and then processing that data, had suggested a tight race, including in the seven swing states that decided the contest.
But they undercounted Trump’s support nationwide, and by as much as four percentage points in such battlegrounds as North Carolina, Nevada and Arizona, as of the count on Friday.
This is a breaking news story, please check back for updates…
